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Using spatial econometrics to analyse local growth in Sweden

  • Johan Lundberg

Lundberg J. (2006) Using spatial econometrics to analyse local growth in Sweden, Regional Studies 40, 303-316. The paper investigates factors that determine the average income growth and net migration rates in Swedish municipalities during 1981-99. The main issue is to test the hypothesis that conditional on a set of other possible determinants of regional growth, the growth rate in one municipality is affected by the growth rates in its neighbouring municipalities. The hypothesis of conditional convergence is also tested. A positive correlation is found between net migration rates in neighbouring municipalities, which suggests that net migration tends to 'spillover' to neighbouring municipalities. When it comes to average income growth, the results indicate spatial dependence in the error terms during the 1980s. However, there is no clear evidence in favour of the hypothesis of conditional convergence. Instead, the results predict conditional divergence between municipalities located in the Stockholm region throughout the period and also for municipalities outside the Stockholm region during the 1990s. Lundberg J. (2006) L'economie geographique au service d'une analyse de la croissance locale en Suede, Regional Studies 40, 303-316. Cet article cherche a examiner les determinants de la croissance du revenu moyen et du solde migratoire des municipalites suedoises de 1981 a 1999. Il s'agit principalement de tester l'hypothese suivant: a condition qu'un autre ensemble de determinants de la croissance regionale soit satisfait, le taux de croissance d'une municipalite quelleconque est influence par le taux de croissance des municipalites environnantes. On teste aussi l'hypothese de convergence conditonnelle. Il s'avere une correlation etroite entre le solde migratoire des municipalites environnantes, ce qui laisse supposer que les flux migratoires ont tendance a envahir les municipalites environnantes. Quant a la croissance du revenu moyen, les resultats laissent indiquer une dependance geographique des termes d'erreur pendant les annees 1980. Neanmoins, rien ne prouve l'hypothese de convergence conditionnelle. Les resultats prevoient la divergence conditionnelle des municipalites situees dans la region de Stockholm pendant toute la periode et des municipalites situees en dehors de la region de Stockholm pendant les annees 1990. Effets geographiques, Convergence conditionnelle, Croissance regionale, Solde migratoire Lundberg J. (2006) Raumliche Wirtschaften als Mittel zur Analyse ortlichen Wachstums in Schweden, Regional Studies 40, 303-316. Dieser Aufsatz untersucht Faktoren, die durchschnittliche Zunahme von Einkommen und Nettowanderungsraten in schwedischen Gemeinden im Zeitraum 1981-99 bestimmten. Es geht hauptsachlich darum, die Hypothese zu prufen, dass, obschon von einer Reihe anderer moglicher bestimmender Faktoren regionalen Wachstums abhangig, die Wachstumsrate in einer Gemeinde von Wachstumsraten benachbarter Gemeinden beeinflusst wird. Der Autor untersucht auch die Hypothese bedingter Konvergenz. Es wird eine positive Beziehung zwischen Nettowanderungsraten in benachbarten Gemeinden festgestellt, was nahelegt, dass Nettowanderung dazu neigt, in benachbarte Gemeinden 'uberzuschwappen'. Wenn es um durchschnittliche Einkommenszunahme geht, deuten die Ergebnisse der Untersuchung auf raumliche Einkommenabhangigkeit in den Irrtumsbegriffen der achtziger Jahre hin. Es lassen sich jedoch keine klaren Beweise zugunsten der Hypothese bedingter Konvergenz feststellen. Stattdessen sagen die Ergebnisse der Untersuchung eine bedingte Divergenz zwischen Gemeinden voraus, die sich wahrend des gesamten Zeitraums in Gebiet von Stockholm befanden und auch fur Gemeinden, die wahrend der neunziger Jahre ausserhalb der Region von Stockholm lagen. Raumliche Auswirkung, bedingte Konvergenz, regionales Wachstum, Nettowanderung Lundberg J. (2006) Datos economicos espaciales para analizar el crecimiento local en Suecia, Regional Studies 40, 303-316. En este ensayo analizamos que factores definen el crecimiento medio de ingresos y las tasas de migracion neta en los municipios suecos durante el periodo de 1981 a 1999. La cuestion principal es comprobar la hipotesis de que, dependiendo de una serie de otros posibles determinantes del crecimiento regional, la tasa de crecimiento en un municipio se ve afectada por las tasas de crecimiento de los municipios vecinos. Tambien comprobamos la hipotesis de la convergencia condicional. Observamos una correlacion positiva entre las tasas de migracion neta en los municipios vecinos que indica que esta migracion neta tiende a contagiarse a municipios vecinos. Cuando hablamos del crecimiento medio de ingresos, en nuestros resultados aparece una dependencia espacial en terminos de errores durante los ochenta. Sin embargo, no hallamos una prueba clara a favor de la hipotesis de la convergencia condicional. Mas bien nuestros resultados predicen una divergencia condicional entre los municipios ubicados en la region de Estocolmo durante este periodo y tambien para los municipios de la periferia durante los noventa. Efectos espaciales, Convergencia condicional, Crecimiento regional, Migracion neta

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Regional Studies.

Volume (Year): 40 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 303-316

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Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:40:y:2006:i:3:p:303-316
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