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High School Grades and University Performance: A Case Study

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  • Philippe Cyrenne

    (Department of Economics, The University of Winnipeg)

  • Alan Chan

Abstract

A critical issue facing a number of colleges and universities is how to allocate first year places to incoming students. The decision to admit students if often based on a number of factors, but a key statistic is a student's high school grades. This paper reports on a case study of the subsequent performance at the University of Winnipeg of high school students from 84 Manitoba High Schools. By tracking the University performance of a set of students admitted for the years 1997-2002, we are able to estimate the likelihood of success of subsequent students based on their characteristics as well as their high school grades. In doing so, we use a number of alternative estimators including a Least Squares Dummy Variable Model and a Hierarchical Linear Model. The methodology should be of interest to admissions o±cers at other universities as an input into estimating the subsequent performance of first year students.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Cyrenne & Alan Chan, 2010. "High School Grades and University Performance: A Case Study," Departmental Working Papers 2010-02, The University of Winnipeg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:win:winwop:2010-02
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles L. Baum & Christopher J. Ruhm, 2016. "The Changing Benefits of Early Work Experience," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(2), pages 343-363, October.
    2. Zhaoyi Cao & Tim Maloney, 2017. "Decomposing Ethnic Differences in University Academic Achievement in New Zealand," Working Papers 2017-02, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    3. Cardak, Buly A. & Vecci, Joe, 2013. "Catholic school effectiveness in Australia: A reassessment using selection on observed and unobserved variables," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 34-45.
    4. Carlos Vieira & Isabel Vieira & Luis Raposo, 2018. "Distance and academic performance in higher education," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 60-79, January.
    5. Trappey, Amy J.C. & Trappey, Charles V. & Liu, Penny H.Y. & Lin, Lee-Cheng & Ou, Jerry J.R., 2013. "A hierarchical cost learning model for developing wind energy infrastructures," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 386-391.
    6. Pedro Luis Silva & Carla Sá & Ricardo Biscaia & Pedro N. Teixeira, 2022. "High school and exam scores: Does their predictive validity for academic performance vary with programme selectivity?," NIPE Working Papers 4/2022, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    7. Black, Sandra E. & Lincove, Jane & Cullinane, Jennifer & Veron, Rachel, 2015. "Can you leave high school behind?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-63.
    8. Pedro Luis Silva, 2024. "Specialists or All-Rounders: How Best to Select University Students?," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(2), pages 227-271.
    9. Philippe Cyrenne & Alan Chan, 2019. "The Determinants of Student Success in University: A Generalized Ordered Logit Approach," Departmental Working Papers 2019-03, The University of Winnipeg, Department of Economics.
    10. Sezgin Polat & Jean-Jacques Paul, 2016. "How to predict university performance: a case study from a prestigious Turkish university?," Investigaciones de Economía de la Educación volume 11, in: José Manuel Cordero Ferrera & Rosa Simancas Rodríguez (ed.), Investigaciones de Economía de la Educación 11, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 22, pages 423-434, Asociación de Economía de la Educación.
    11. Beattie, Graham & Laliberté, Jean-William P. & Oreopoulos, Philip, 2018. "Thrivers and divers: Using non-academic measures to predict college success and failure," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 170-182.
    12. Meya, Johannes & Suntheim, Katharina, 2014. "The second dividend of studying abroad: The impact of international student mobility on academic performance," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 215, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    13. R. Bulyga P. & A. Amerslanova N. & Р. Булыга П. & А. Амерсланова Н., 2018. "Совершенствование системы контроля деятельности университетов в Российской Федерации // Improving the System of Control of Universities’ in the Russian Federation," Учет. Анализ. Аудит // Accounting. Analysis. Auditing, ФГОБУВО "Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации" // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 5(6), pages 17-27.
    14. Black, Sandra E. & Cortes, Kalena E. & Lincove, Jane Arnold, 2014. "Efficacy vs. Equity: What Happens When States Tinker with College Admissions in a Race-Blind Era?," IZA Discussion Papers 8733, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Kieron J. Barclay & Dalton Conley, 2022. "The influence of cousin order and cousin group size on educational outcomes," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-013, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    16. Silva, Maria C.A. & Camanho, Ana S. & Barbosa, Flávia, 2020. "Benchmarking of secondary schools based on Students’ results in higher education," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Phipps, Aaron & Amaya, Alexander, 2023. "Are students time constrained? Course load, GPA, and failing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    18. Danilowicz-Gösele, Kamila & Meya, Johannes & Schwager, Robert & Suntheim, Katharina, 2014. "Determinants of students' success at university," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 214, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    19. Cyrenne, Philippe & Chan, Alan, 2012. "High school grades and university performance: A case study," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 524-542.
    20. Liu, Vivian Y.T. & Belfield, Clive R. & Trimble, Madeline J., 2015. "The medium-term labor market returns to community college awards: Evidence from North Carolina," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 42-55.
    21. Hoffmann, Anna-Lena & Lerche, Katharina, 2016. "Class attendance and university performance," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 286, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    22. Li, Haizheng & Liu, Qinyi & Su, Yan & Ederer, Peer, 2023. "Policy initiatives, self-sorting, and labor market effects of tertiary education for adult workers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 205-221.
    23. Nick Huntington-Klein & Andrew Gill, 2021. "Semester Course Load and Student Performance," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 62(5), pages 623-650, August.
    24. Michelle Pleace & Nicky Nicholls, 2022. "Grit, motivation and university grades," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(1), pages 21-36, March.
    25. Pengfei Jia & Tim Maloney, 2014. "Using Predictive Modelling to Identify Students at Risk of Poor University Outcomes," Working Papers 2014-03, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.

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    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
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