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Black markets for foreign exchange, real exchange rates, and inflation : overnight versus gradual reform in sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Pinto, Brian

Abstract

The black market foreign exchange premium is an important implicit tax on exports, creating a conflict between the fiscal goal of financing government spending with a limited menu of tax instruments and the allocative goal of stimulating exports. In this paper, the premium is solved for in a model that includes the portfolio balance approach to exchange rates, dual exchange markets, and seignorage for financing the fiscal deficit. The steady state and dynamic implications for inflation of floats as a vehicle for unifying official and black market rates are then analyzed. Inflation could rise substantially in the new steady state as the lost revenue from exports is replaced with a higher tax on money. Further, the conditions under which undershooting or overshooting occur are parameterized. The paper is motivated by and illustrated with recent examples from sub - Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinto, Brian, 1988. "Black markets for foreign exchange, real exchange rates, and inflation : overnight versus gradual reform in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 84, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:84
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ebaidalla Mahjoub Ebaidalla, 2017. "Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact of Parallel Market For Foreign Exchange in Sudan," Working Papers 1155, Economic Research Forum, revised 11 2017.
    2. Hassan, Rashid M., 1989. "A temporary general equilibrium model with endogenous money for economic policy analysis in Sudan," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010129, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Sanusi, Aliyu Rafindadi, 2010. "Lessons from the foreign exchange market reforms in Ghana: 1983-2006," MPRA Paper 29502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Minh Tam Bui, 2018. "Causality in Vietnam’s Parallel Exchange Rate System during 2005–2011: Policy Implications for Macroeconomic Stability," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Albert Makochekanwa, 2007. "Zimbabwe’s Black Market for Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 200713, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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