IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/7390.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Depreciations without exports ? global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed,Swarnali
  • Appendino,Maximiliano Andres
  • Ruta,Michele

Abstract

This paper analyzes how the exchange rate elasticity of exports has changed over time and across countries and sectors, and how the formation of global value chains has affected this relationship. The analysis uses a panel framework covering 46 countries over the period 1996-2012, and first finds evidence that the elasticity of manufacturing export volumes to the real effective exchange rate has decreased over time. The paper then examines whether the formation of supply chains has affected this elasticity using different measures of global value chain integration. Intuitively, as countries are more integrated in global production processes, a currency depreciation only improves the competitiveness of a fraction of the value of final goods exports. In line with this intuition, the analysis finds evidence that the rise of participation in global value chains explains on average 40 percent of the fall in the elasticity, and that corrections of the real effective exchange rate for participation in global value chains do not present the same decreasing pattern in elasticity.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed,Swarnali & Appendino,Maximiliano Andres & Ruta,Michele, 2015. "Depreciations without exports ? global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7390, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7390
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/08/11/090224b08306790b/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Depreciations00lasticity0of0exports.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 459-494, February.
    2. Mr. Kevin C Cheng & Mr. Romain A Duval & Kum Hwa Oh & Richa Saraf, 2014. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization: A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia," IMF Working Papers 2014/052, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2020. "The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 34(1), pages 121-142.
    4. Pol Antras & Davin Chor & Thibault Fally & Russell Hillberry, 2012. "Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 412-416, May.
    5. Nikhil Patel & Zhi Wang & Shang‐Jin Wei, 2019. "Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates at the Country‐Sector Level," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 7-42, December.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2012. "The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?," Working Papers 12/112, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    7. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
    8. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2017. "Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 45-90, October.
    9. Robert C. Johnson, 2014. "Five Facts about Value-Added Exports and Implications for Macroeconomics and Trade Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 119-142, Spring.
    10. Mika Saito & Mr. Jarkko Turunen & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2013. "Measuring Competitiveness: Trade in Goods or Tasks?," IMF Working Papers 2013/100, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Virginia Di Nino & Barry Eichengreen & Massimo Sbracia, 2011. "Real Exchange Rates, Trade, and Growth: Italy 1861-2011," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 10, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 577-605, July.
    13. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2013. "Import protection, business cycles, and exchange rates: Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 50-64.
    14. Eichengreen, Barry & Tong, Hui, 2015. "Effects of renminbi appreciation on foreign firms: The role of processing exports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 146-157.
    15. Mr. Jack J Ree & Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Seoeun Choi, 2015. "Should Korea Worry about a Permanently Weak Yen?," IMF Working Papers 2015/158, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2012. "Value-Added Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cigna, Simone & Vanessa.Gunnella & Quaglietti, Lucia, 2022. "Global value chains: measurement, trends and drivers," Occasional Paper Series 289, European Central Bank.
    3. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "Uncertainty over Exchange Rates and Exports: Evidence from dispersion of expectations as a measure of uncertainty," Discussion papers 16010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Staehr, Karsten, 2021. "Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 204-217.
    5. Willem THORBECKE & CHEN Chen & Nimesh SALIKE, 2020. "The Relationship between Product Complexity and Exchange Rate Elasticities: Evidence from the People's Republic of China's Manufacturing Industries," Discussion papers 20075, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Bernabe Lopez‐Martin, 2022. "Firm Export Dynamics And The Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Exploration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1137-1163, August.
    7. David C. López-Valenzuela & Enrique Montes-Uribe & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano & Alvaro Carmona-Duarte, 2019. "Determinantes y evolución entre precios y cantidades de las exportaciones industriales de Colombia: un estudio a partir de un modelo de Panel-VAR," Borradores de Economia 1075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Ergen, Timur & Kohl, Sebastian & Braun, Benjamin, 2021. "Firm foundations: The statistical footprint of multinational corporations as a problem for political economy," MPIfG Discussion Paper 21/5, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    9. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Jia, Pengfei, 2020. "Capital controls and welfare with cross-border bank capital flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Firanchuk, Alexander, 2018. "Imported Intermediate Goods and Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Export Prices," EconStor Preprints 182400, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Santiago Camara & Maximo Sangiacomo, 2022. "Borrowing Constraints in Emerging Markets," Papers 2211.10864, arXiv.org.
    12. Mr. Magnus Saxegaard & Sandile Hlatshwayo, 2016. "The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty: Disconnects and Dilutions in the South African Real Effective Exchange Rate-Export Relationship," IMF Working Papers 2016/113, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Jorge A. Fornero & Miguel A. Fuentes & Andrés Gatty, 2017. "How do manufacturing exports react to RER and foreign demand? The Chilean case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 810, Central Bank of Chile.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmed Swarnali & Appendino Maximiliano & Ruta Michele, 2017. "Global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-24, January.
    2. Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2016. "Value-added Trade, Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Trade Elasticity: Revisiting the Trade Competitiveness," 2016 Papers pud11, Job Market Papers.
    3. Khee Giap Tan & Luu Nguyen Trieu Duong & Hui Yin Chuah, 2019. "Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 873-901, October.
    4. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "Accounting for the Differences Between Gross and Value Added Trade Balances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(9), pages 1276-1306, September.
    5. Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Jelle Barkema & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2019. "The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains," IMF Working Papers 2019/193, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Sato, Kiyotaka & Shimizu, Junko & Shrestha, Nagendra & Zhang, Shajuan, 2020. "New empirical assessment of export price competitiveness: Industry-specific real effective exchange rates in Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Marchetti, Juan & Ruta, Michele & Teh, Robert, 2012. "Trade imbalances and multilateral trade cooperation," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2012-23, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    8. de Soyres, François & Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa & Pavlova, Elena, 2021. "Bought, sold and bought again: The impact of complex value chains on export elasticities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Nikhil Patel & Zhi Wang & Shang‐Jin Wei, 2019. "Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates at the Country‐Sector Level," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 7-42, December.
    10. Benkovskis Konstantins & Wörz Julia, 2018. "“Made in China”: how does it affect our understanding of global market shares?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-26, June.
    11. Silgoner, Maria & Ramskogler, Paul & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2016. "Trade in value added: do we need new measures of competitiveness?," Working Paper Series 1936, European Central Bank.
    12. Felice, Giulia & Tajoli, Lucia, 2021. "Trade balances and global value chains: Is there a link?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 228-246.
    13. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Stefano Federico & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Andrea Linarello, 2018. "Back on Track? A Macro–Micro Narrative of Italian Exports," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, March.
    14. LI Zhigang & WEI Shang-Jin & ZHANG Hongyong, 2018. "Production Chains, Exchange Rate Shocks, and Firm Performance," Discussion papers 18058, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Wörz, Julia, 2018. "What drives the market share changes? Price versus non-price factors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-29.
    16. Marilia Marcato & Carolina Baltar & Fernando Sarti, 2019. "International competitiveness in a vertically fragmented production structure: empirical challenges and evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 876-893.
    17. Mayer, Thierry & Steingress, Walter, 2020. "Estimating the effect of exchange rate changes on total exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    18. Nenci, Silvia & Fusacchia, Ilaria & Giunta, Anna & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Pietrobelli, Carlo, 2022. "Mapping global value chain participation and positioning in agriculture and food: stylised facts, empirical evidence and critical issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 11(2), July.
    19. Pol Antràs & Alonso de Gortari, 2020. "On the Geography of Global Value Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1553-1598, July.
    20. Antr�s, Pol & Chor, Davin, 2017. "On the Measurement of Upstreamness and Downstreamness in Global Value Chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 12549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7390. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.