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Depreciations without exports ? global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports


  • Ahmed,Swarnali
  • Appendino,Maximiliano Andres
  • Ruta,Michele


This paper analyzes how the exchange rate elasticity of exports has changed over time and across countries and sectors, and how the formation of global value chains has affected this relationship. The analysis uses a panel framework covering 46 countries over the period 1996-2012, and first finds evidence that the elasticity of manufacturing export volumes to the real effective exchange rate has decreased over time. The paper then examines whether the formation of supply chains has affected this elasticity using different measures of global value chain integration. Intuitively, as countries are more integrated in global production processes, a currency depreciation only improves the competitiveness of a fraction of the value of final goods exports. In line with this intuition, the analysis finds evidence that the rise of participation in global value chains explains on average 40 percent of the fall in the elasticity, and that corrections of the real effective exchange rate for participation in global value chains do not present the same decreasing pattern in elasticity.

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  • Ahmed,Swarnali & Appendino,Maximiliano Andres & Ruta,Michele, 2015. "Depreciations without exports ? global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7390, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7390

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Cigna, Simone & Vanessa.Gunnella & Quaglietti, Lucia, 2022. "Global value chains: measurement, trends and drivers," Occasional Paper Series 289, European Central Bank.
    3. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "Uncertainty over Exchange Rates and Exports: Evidence from dispersion of expectations as a measure of uncertainty," Discussion papers 16010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Staehr, Karsten, 2021. "Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 204-217.
    5. Willem THORBECKE & CHEN Chen & Nimesh SALIKE, 2020. "The Relationship between Product Complexity and Exchange Rate Elasticities: Evidence from the People's Republic of China's Manufacturing Industries," Discussion papers 20075, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Bernabe Lopez‐Martin, 2022. "Firm Export Dynamics And The Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Exploration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1137-1163, August.
    7. David C. López-Valenzuela & Enrique Montes-Uribe & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano & Alvaro Carmona-Duarte, 2019. "Determinantes y evolución entre precios y cantidades de las exportaciones industriales de Colombia: un estudio a partir de un modelo de Panel-VAR," Borradores de Economia 1075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Ergen, Timur & Kohl, Sebastian & Braun, Benjamin, 2021. "Firm foundations: The statistical footprint of multinational corporations as a problem for political economy," MPIfG Discussion Paper 21/5, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    9. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Jia, Pengfei, 2020. "Capital controls and welfare with cross-border bank capital flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Firanchuk, Alexander, 2018. "Imported Intermediate Goods and Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Export Prices," EconStor Preprints 182400, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Santiago Camara & Maximo Sangiacomo, 2022. "Borrowing Constraints in Emerging Markets," Papers 2211.10864,
    12. Mr. Magnus Saxegaard & Sandile Hlatshwayo, 2016. "The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty: Disconnects and Dilutions in the South African Real Effective Exchange Rate-Export Relationship," IMF Working Papers 2016/113, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Jorge A. Fornero & Miguel A. Fuentes & Andrés Gatty, 2017. "How do manufacturing exports react to RER and foreign demand? The Chilean case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 810, Central Bank of Chile.

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