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What factors determine unequal suburbanisation? New evidence from Warsaw, Poland


  • Honorata Bogusz

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw and Labfam)

  • Szymon Winnicki

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

  • Piotr Wójcik

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, Data Science Lab WNE UW, University of Warsaw)


This article investigates the causes of spatially uneven migration from Warsaw to its suburban boroughs. The method is based on the gravity model of migration extended by additional measures of possible pulling factors. We report a novel approach to modelling suburbanisation: several linear and non-linear predictive models are estimated and explainable AI methods are used to interpret the shape of relationships between the dependent variable and the most important regressors. It is confirmed that migrants choose boroughs of better amenities and of smaller distance to Warsaw city center.

Suggested Citation

  • Honorata Bogusz & Szymon Winnicki & Piotr Wójcik, 2020. "What factors determine unequal suburbanisation? New evidence from Warsaw, Poland," Working Papers 2020-34, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2020-34

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Romuald Jończy & Przemysław Śleszyński & Alicja Dolińska & Michał Ptak & Justyna Rokitowska-Malcher & Diana Rokita-Poskart, 2021. "Environmental and Economic Factors of Migration from Urban to Rural Areas: Evidence from Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-25, December.

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    More about this item


    suburbanisation; gravity model of migration; machine learning models; explainable artificial intelligence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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