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What factors contribute to uneven suburbanisation? Predicting the number of migrants from Warsaw to its suburbs with machine learning

Author

Listed:
  • Honorata Bogusz

    (University of Warsaw)

  • Szymon Winnicki
  • Piotr Wójcik

    (University of Warsaw
    University of Warsaw)

Abstract

This article investigates the spatially uneven migration from Warsaw to its suburban municipalities. We report a novel approach to modelling suburbanisation: several linear and nonlinear predictive models are applied, and Explainable Artificial Intelligence methods are used to interpret the shape of relationships between the dependent variable and the most important regressors. The support vector regression algorithm is found to yield the most accurate predictions of the number of migrants to the suburbs of Warsaw. In addition, we find that migrants choose wealthier and more urbanised municipalities that offer better institutional amenities and a shorter driving time to Warsaw’s city centre.

Suggested Citation

  • Honorata Bogusz & Szymon Winnicki & Piotr Wójcik, 2024. "What factors contribute to uneven suburbanisation? Predicting the number of migrants from Warsaw to its suburbs with machine learning," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1353-1382, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:72:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s00168-023-01245-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-023-01245-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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