IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/anresc/v72y2024i4d10.1007_s00168-023-01245-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What factors contribute to uneven suburbanisation? Predicting the number of migrants from Warsaw to its suburbs with machine learning

Author

Listed:
  • Honorata Bogusz

    (University of Warsaw)

  • Szymon Winnicki
  • Piotr Wójcik

    (University of Warsaw
    University of Warsaw)

Abstract

This article investigates the spatially uneven migration from Warsaw to its suburban municipalities. We report a novel approach to modelling suburbanisation: several linear and nonlinear predictive models are applied, and Explainable Artificial Intelligence methods are used to interpret the shape of relationships between the dependent variable and the most important regressors. The support vector regression algorithm is found to yield the most accurate predictions of the number of migrants to the suburbs of Warsaw. In addition, we find that migrants choose wealthier and more urbanised municipalities that offer better institutional amenities and a shorter driving time to Warsaw’s city centre.

Suggested Citation

  • Honorata Bogusz & Szymon Winnicki & Piotr Wójcik, 2024. "What factors contribute to uneven suburbanisation? Predicting the number of migrants from Warsaw to its suburbs with machine learning," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1353-1382, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:72:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s00168-023-01245-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-023-01245-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00168-023-01245-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00168-023-01245-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewer, Joshua J. & Van den Berg, Hendrik, 2008. "A gravity model of immigration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 164-167, April.
    2. Paul Hofmarcher & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Bettina Grün & Kurt Hornik, 2015. "Last Night a Shrinkage Saved My Life: Economic Growth, Model Uncertainty and Correlated Regressors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 133-144, March.
    3. Jacques Poot & Omoniyi Alimi & Michael P. Cameron & David C. Maré, 2016. "The gravity model of migration: the successful comeback of an ageing superstar in regional science," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 36, pages 63-86.
    4. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    5. Michèle Belot & Sjef Ederveen, 2012. "Cultural barriers in migration between OECD countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 1077-1105, July.
    6. Flores, Benito E, 1986. "A pragmatic view of accuracy measurement in forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 93-98.
    7. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(5), pages 416-416.
    8. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    9. Peter Mieszkowski & Edwin S. Mills, 1993. "The Causes of Metropolitan Suburbanization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 135-147, Summer.
    10. Filippo Simini & Marta C. González & Amos Maritan & Albert-László Barabási, 2012. "A universal model for mobility and migration patterns," Nature, Nature, vol. 484(7392), pages 96-100, April.
    11. Jessie Bakens & Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Peter Mulder, 2018. "Ethnic drift and white flight: A gravity model of neighborhood formation," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(5), pages 921-948, November.
    12. Matthew E. Kahn, 2000. "The environmental impact of suburbanization," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 569-586.
    13. Thomas J. Courchene, 1970. "Interprovincial Migration and Economic Adjustment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(4), pages 550-576, November.
    14. Jacques Poot & Omoniyi Alimi & Michael P. Cameron & David C. Maré, 2016. "The gravity model of migration: the successful comeback of an ageing superstar in regional science," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 36, pages 63-86.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Honorata Bogusz & Szymon Winnicki & Piotr Wójcik, 2020. "What factors determine unequal suburbanisation? New evidence from Warsaw, Poland," Working Papers 2020-34, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Honorata Bogusz, 2021. "Causes of the spatially uneven outflow of Warsaw inhabitants to the city’s suburbs: an economic analysis of the problem," Working Papers 2021-01, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    3. Yu Wang & Sainan Lin & John I. Carruthers, 2025. "Tracking the peacocks: a gravity analysis of the Chinese migration system, 1990–2020," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(1), pages 1-31, March.
    4. Michael P. Cameron, 2017. "Climate Change, Internal Migration and the Future Spatial Distribution of Population: A Case Study of New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 17/03, University of Waikato.
    5. Robert M. Beyer & Jacob Schewe & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2022. "Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Ljubica Nedelkoska & Diego Martin & Alexia Lochmann & Ricardo Hausmann & Dany Bahar & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2025. "De facto Openness to Immigration," Papers 2502.16407, arXiv.org.
    7. Ljubica Nedelkoska & Diego A. Martin & Alexia Lochmann & Dany Bahar & Ricardo Hausmann & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2025. "De Facto Openness to Immigration," Growth Lab Working Papers 245, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    8. María Gutiérrez-Portilla & Adolfo Maza & María Hierro, 2018. "Foreigners versus natives in Spain: different migration patterns? Any changes in the aftermath of the crisis?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 61(1), pages 139-159, July.
    9. Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2019. "Publisher Correction to: The estimation and interpretation of coefficients in panel gravity models of migration," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 17-17, April.
    10. Marijn J. Ton & Hans de Moel & Jens A. de Bruijn & Lena Reimann & Wouter J. W. Botzen & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2025. "Economic damage from natural hazards and internal migration in the United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(4), pages 4985-5005, March.
    11. Parker Elliott, 2020. "Migration Patterns in Eastern Europe and the World: A Gravity Approach," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 66-79, June.
    12. Morellini, Micol Matilde, 2025. "A Simulation Approach for the Spatial Testing of Migration Theories," OSF Preprints 98d2a_v1, Center for Open Science.
    13. Arthur Grimes & Shaan Badenhorst & David C. Maré & Jacques Poot, 2020. "Hometown wh?nau or big city millennials? The economic geography of graduate destination choices in New Zealand," Working Papers 20_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    14. Oliva, Paulina, 2024. "Migration and the environment: A look across perspectives," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    15. Miriam Hortas-Rico & Albert Solé-Ollé, 2010. "Does Urban Sprawl Increase the Costs of Providing Local Public Services? Evidence from Spanish Municipalities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(7), pages 1513-1540, June.
    16. Ginzinger, Felix Sebastian Veit, 2020. "A spatial analysis of the determinants of Inter-regional migration: evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 114945, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2022.
    17. Sanghoon Lee & Jeffrey Lin, 2018. "Natural Amenities, Neighbourhood Dynamics, and Persistence in the Spatial Distribution of Income," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 663-694.
    18. Tadesse Soka Gignarta & ZhenZhong Guan & Dinkneh Gebre Borojo, 2020. "The Impacts of Economic Freedom and Institutional Quality on Migration from African Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(3), pages 242-266, September.
    19. Michael Berlemann & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2017. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 353-385.
    20. Iordache Mihaela & Matei Mihaela, 2020. "Explaining Recent Romanian Migration: A Modified Gravity Model with Panel Data," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 46-64, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:72:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s00168-023-01245-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.