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A Futures Market Reduces Bubbles but Allows Greater Profit for More Sophisticated Traders

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Noussair

    () (Tilburg University)

  • Steven J.Tucker

    () (University of Waikato)

  • Yilong Xu

    () (Tilburg University)

Abstract

We study the effect of the addition of a futures market, in which contracts maturing in the last period of the life of the asset can be traded. Our experiment has two treatments, one in which a spot market operates on its own, and a second treatment in which a spot and futures market are active simultaneously. We find that the futures market reduces spot market mispricing among a trader population prone to bubbles, while having no effect on mispricing in a group not prone to it. Thus, overall, futures markets aid price discovery in the spot market, although the futures markets themselves exhibit considerable overpricing. Individuals with higher cognitive reflection test (CRT) scores achieve greater earnings, as they tend to sell in the overpriced futures market, while traders with lower CRT score make purchases in the futures market. We also consider the predictive power of an enhanced CRT measure (ECRT), which weightstwo types of incorrect answers differently.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Noussair & Steven J.Tucker & Yilong Xu, 2014. "A Futures Market Reduces Bubbles but Allows Greater Profit for More Sophisticated Traders," Working Papers in Economics 14/12, University of Waikato.
  • Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:14/12
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    2. de Jong, Frank & Nijman, Theo, 1997. "High frequency analysis of lead-lag relationships between financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 259-277, June.
    3. Thomas Stöckl & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2010. "Bubble measures in experimental asset markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 13(3), pages 284-298, September.
    4. Shane Frederick, 2005. "Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 25-42, Fall.
    5. Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-152.
    6. Charles Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2006. "Futures Markets And Bubble Formation In Experimental Asset Markets ," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 167-184, June.
    7. Sanford J. Grossman, 1977. "The Existence of Futures Markets, Noisy Rational Expectations and Informational Externalities," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 431-449.
    8. Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-541, October.
    9. Van Boening, Mark V. & Williams, Arlington W. & LaMaster, Shawn, 1993. "Price bubbles and crashes in experimental call markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 179-185.
    10. Nijman, T.E. & de Jong, F.C.J.M., 1997. "High frequency analysis of lead-lag relationships between financial markets," Other publications TiSEM f4f406a0-771a-4af2-9364-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Stefan Palan, 2013. "A Review Of Bubbles And Crashes In Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 570-588, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2015. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Quant Skills, Behavioral Biases and Intuition on Trader Performance," Working Papers 15-17, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    2. Cueva, Carlos & Iturbe-Ormaetxe, Iñigo & Mata-Pérez, Esther & Ponti, Giovanni & Sartarelli, Marcello & Yu, Haihan & Zhukova, Vita, 2016. "Cognitive (ir)reflection: New experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 81-93.
    3. Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2016. "What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance," Working Papers halshs-01364432, HAL.
    4. Andreas Hefti & Steve Heinke & Frédéric Schneider, 2016. "Mental capabilities, trading styles, and asset market bubbles: theory and experiment," ECON - Working Papers 234, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    5. Ciril Bosch-Rosa & Thomas Meissner & Antoni Bosch-Domènech, 2018. "Cognitive bubbles," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 21(1), pages 132-153, March.
    6. Kocher, Martin G. & Lucks, Konstantin E. & Schindler, David, 2016. "Unleashing Animal Spirits - Self-Control and Overpricing in Experimental Asset Markets," Discussion Papers in Economics 27572, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    7. Jimenez, Natalia & Rodriguez-Lara, Ismael & Tyran, Jean-Robert & Wengström, Erik, 2018. "Thinking fast, thinking badly," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 41-44.
    8. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2017. "Information (Non)Aggregation in Markets with Costly Signal Acquisition," Working Papers halshs-01686493, HAL.
    9. Lucks, Konstantin, 2016. "The Impact of Self-Control on Investment Decisions," MPRA Paper 73099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Utz Weitzel & Christoph Huber & Florian Lindner & Jürgen Huber & Julia Rose & Michael Kirchler, 2018. "Bubbles and financial professionals," Working Papers 2018-04, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck, revised Jun 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset market experiment; market institution; futures market;

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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