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Monetary Policy and Currency Returns: the Foresight Saga

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  • Borisenko, Dmitry
  • Pozdeev, Igor

    ()

Abstract

We document a drift in exchange rates before monetary policy changes across major economies. Currencies tend to depreciate by 0.7 percent over ten days before policy rate cuts and appreciate by 0.5 percent before policy rate increases. We show that available fixed income instruments allow to accurately forecast monetary policy decisions and thus that the drift is foreseeable and exploitable by investors. A simple trading strategy buying currencies against USD ten days ahead of predicted local interest rate hikes and selling currencies before predicted cuts earns on average a statistically significant return of 42 basis points per ten-day period. We further demonstrate that this return is robust to the choice of holding horizon and monetary policy forecast rule. Our results thus pose a major challenge for the risk-based explanations of the exchange rate dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Borisenko, Dmitry & Pozdeev, Igor, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Currency Returns: the Foresight Saga," Working Papers on Finance 1708, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised 1710.
  • Handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2017:08
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    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/sfwpfi/WPF-1708.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Policy Expectations; Predictability; Overnight Index Swap; Foreign Exchange;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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