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Trade and Informality in the Presence of Labor Market Frictions and Regulations

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Dix-Carneiro

    (Duke University and NBER)

  • Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg

    (Yale University)

  • Costas Meghir

    (Yale University)

  • Gabriel Ulyssea

    (University College of London)

Abstract

We build an equilibrium model of a small open economy with labor market frictions and imperfectly enforced regulations. Heterogeneous firms sort into the formal or informal sector. We estimate the model using data from Brazil, and use counterfactual simulations to understand how trade affects economic outcomes in the presence of informality. We show the following: 1) Trade openness unambiguously decreases informality in the tradable sector but has ambiguous effects on aggregate informality. 2) The productivity gains from trade are understated when the informal sector is omitted. 3) Trade openness results in large welfare gains even when informality is repressed. 4) Repressing informality increases productivity but at the expense of employment and welfare. 5) The effects of trade on wage inequality are reversed when the informal sector is incorporated in the analysis. 6) The informal sector works as an “unemployment buffer” but not a “welfare buffer” in the event of negative economic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Costas Meghir & Gabriel Ulyssea, 2021. "Trade and Informality in the Presence of Labor Market Frictions and Regulations," Upjohn Working Papers 21-347, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:21-347
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor market effects of trade; Informality; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J46 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Informal Labor Market
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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