IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ulr/wpaper/dt-11-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

El enfoque de la Reacción en Cadena: una aplicación para explicar la dinámica del desempleo en Uruguay

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Leites

    () (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

  • Sylvina Porras

    () (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to explain the Uruguayan unemployment dynamic using the theoretical framework of the Chain Reaction Theory (CRT). Changes in unemployment are viewed as “chain reactions” of responses to external shocks, working their way through systems of interaction lagged adjustment processes. CRT is a holistic approach, which allows us to evaluate whether the long term unemployment rate would converge to equilibrium level or is explained by the interplay between external shocks and lagged adjustment processes, which are never completed. Our empirical results indicates: (i) the “unemployment invariance hypothesis” of NAIRU approach is rejected; (ii) inertia on adjustment processes is confirmed; (iii) the interactions between lagged adjustment processes are complementary (iv); and labor market exogenous variables contribute to explain long term evolution of unemployment rate. These findings are relevant because Uruguayan unemployment rate showed frequently deviations with high persistence and their political implications form CRT perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Leites & Sylvina Porras, 2013. "El enfoque de la Reacción en Cadena: una aplicación para explicar la dinámica del desempleo en Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 13-11, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-11-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iecon.ccee.edu.uy/download.php?len=es&id=372&nbre=dt-11-13.pdf&ti=application/pdf&tc=Publicaciones
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
    3. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "The macroeconomics of the labor market: three fundamental views," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(3), pages 151-180, December.
    4. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Pablo F. Salvador, 2008. "The (Ir)Relevance Of The Nru For Policy Making: The Case Of Denmark," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(3), pages 369-392, July.
    5. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-191, January.
    6. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2009. "Labour market flexibility and regional unemployment rate dynamics: Spain 1980-1995," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 181-207, March.
    7. Verónica Amarante & Andrés Dean & Rodrigo Arím, 2013. "Unemployment Insurance Design and Its Effects: Evidence for Uruguay," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, June.
    8. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 45-61, May.
    9. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J, 1998. "How Labour Market Flexibility Affects Unemployment: Long-Term Implications of the Chain Reaction Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 832-849, May.
    10. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    11. Olivier Blanchard, 2006. "European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 5-59, January.
    12. Carolina Román & Henry Willebald, 2012. "Indicadores de inversión en el largo plazo. Una propuesta para Uruguay (1870-2011)," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 12-21, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    13. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    14. Stephen Nickell & Luca Nunziata & Wolfgang Ochel, 2005. "Unemployment in the OECD Since the 1960s. What Do We Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 1-27, January.
    15. Roberto Bande, 2002. "Ajustes Dinámicos en las Tasas de Paro: España vs. Portugal," Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica 0020, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
    16. Víctor M. Montuenga-Gómez & José M. Ramos-Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.
    17. Raurich, Xavier & Sala, Hector & Sorolla, Valeri, 2006. "Unemployment, Growth, And Fiscal Policy: New Insights On The Hysteresis Hypothesis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 285-316, June.
    18. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis, 2003. "Unemployment in the European Union: a dynamic reappraisal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-273, March.
    19. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1997. "Is the natural rate a reference point?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 559-569, April.
    20. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    21. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2004. "Unemployment Invariance," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(3), pages 297-317, August.
    22. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2008. "The Rise and Fall of Spanish Unemployment: A Chain Reaction Theory Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3712, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    23. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678-678.
    24. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February.
    25. Bucheli, Marisa & Furtado, Magdalena, 1998. "Flexibilidad del mercado de trabajo en Uruguay," Oficina de la CEPAL en Montevideo (Estudios e Investigaciones) 28641, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    26. Jorge Notaro, 2005. "Employment and unemployment in Uruguay 1984-2005," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 05-02, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:ecr:col070:41257 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor market; unemployment; wages;

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-11-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andrés Dean). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ierauuy.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.