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Ajustes Dinámicos en las Tasas de Paro: España Vs. Portugal

  • Roberto Bande

    ()

    (Departamento de Fundamentos da Análise Económica. Universidade de Santiago de Compostela)

En este trabajo se aborda la diferencia entre la tasa de desempleo en España y Portugal. Las teorías tradicionales explican los movimientos del desempleo como resultado de los movimientos de la Tasa Natural de Paro o como resultado de shocks temporales con efectos permanentes sobre el de- sempleo, bajo la hipótesis de histéresis. En este trabajo, se sigue el enfoque de la Teoría de la Reacción en Cadena, que interpreta los movimientos del desempleo como resultado de la interacción de un conjunto de procesos de ajuste retardado presentes en el mercado de trabajo con las características dinámicas de los shocks. En este contexto, encontramos que el desempleo puede haber crecido más en España que en Portugal debido a los largos perío- dos de ajuste necesarios para interiorizar los efectos de un shock temporal, mientras que los efectos de los shocks permanentes necesitan largos períodos de tiempo para manifestarse. Por último, encontramos que el aumento de la tasa de paro española no puede justificarse tan sólo en términos de un aumento de la tasa natural, ya que más del 57% del cambio total entre 1980 y 1995 se debe a los procesos de ajuste.

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Paper provided by IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia in its series Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica with number 0020.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:edg:anecon:0020
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  11. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  14. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
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