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Climate Change and Migration: A Gravity Model Approach

  • Pamela Ragazzi

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    In this paper climate change is analysed as one of the reasons that push people to migrate. Climate change shows through four main channels: temperature change, precipitation change, sea level rise and extreme events. All these channels are considered together by adding anomalies in temperature and precipitation and the number of people affected by natural disasters to a gravity model of migration, where the bilateral migration flow between 182 countries of the world is the unit of analysis. The empirical tests demonstrate a statistically significant relation between migration and climate change, however while anomalies in temperature and precipitation have a positive impact, the effect of extreme events is ambiguous.

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    File URL: http://out.economia.unife.it/uploads/dip_deit/quaderni/2012031.pdf
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    Paper provided by University of Ferrara, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2012031.

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    Length: 21 pages
    Date of creation: 13 Nov 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:udf:wpaper:2012031
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    1. Ahmed , Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel , Thomas W. & Lobell, David B. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5117, The World Bank.
    2. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
    3. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
    4. De Sousa, Jose & Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2011. "Market access in global and regional trade," MPRA Paper 35602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    6. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-94, September.
    7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    8. Drabo, Alassane & Mbaye, Linguère Mously, 2011. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters and Migration: An Empirical Analysis in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 5927, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Olivier Desch�nes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    10. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," NBER Working Papers 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
    12. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
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