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Policy lessons from Ireland’s latest depression

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  • Karl Whelan

Abstract

In this paper, I provide a selective review of Ireland’s economic performance of the last 20 years, from the early days of the Celtic Tiger, through to the housing boom and the recent slump, and then attempt to draw a few lessons from the period. I argue, based on a range of observations, that a substantial slowdown was looming for Ireland by 2007, independent of what was going to happen in the global economy, and much of this evidence was ignored in the implementation of economic policy. The result was a range of policies based on an unwarranted over-optimism which left Ireland terribly exposed to the international downturn. Policy failures in the fiscal and banking are are discussed, as well as some common criticisms of policy that have less justification.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl Whelan, 2009. "Policy lessons from Ireland’s latest depression," Working Papers 200914, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200914
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2612
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kieran McQuinn & Karl Whelan, 2008. "Prospects for Growth in the Euro Area," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 54(4), pages 642-680, December.
    2. McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2010. "How are Irish households coping with their mortgage repayments? Information from the SILC Survey," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/10, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip J., 2009. "The Public-Private Sector Pay Gap in Ireland: What Lies Beneath?," Papers WP321, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Patrick Honohan & Brendan Walsh, 2002. "Catching Up with the Leaders: The Irish Hare," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 1-78.
    5. Kelly, Eilish & McGuinness, Seamus & O'Connell, Philip, 2009. "Benchmarking, Social Partnership and Higher Remuneration: Wage Settling Institutions and the Public-Private Sector Wage Gap in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(3), pages 339-370.
    6. Cussen, Mary & Kelly, John & Phelan, Gillian, 2008. "The Impact of Asset Price Trends on Irish Households," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 70-84, July.
    7. Honohan, Patrick, 2009. "Resolving Ireland’s Banking Crisis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 207-231.
    8. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2006. "Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. R. A. Somerville, 2007. "Housing Tenure in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 107-134.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alan Barrett & Séamus McGuiness, 2012. "The Irish Labour Market and the Great Recession," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(02), pages 27-33, August.
    3. Peter Howley & Emma Dillon, 2012. "Factors affecting the level of farm indebtedness: the role of farming attitudes," Working Papers 1201, Rural Economy and Development Programme,Teagasc.
    4. Colm McCarthy, 2009. "Ireland’s second fiscal consolidation – lessons from the last time," Working Papers 200917, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    5. Mary Cussen, 2015. "Deciphering Ireland’s Macroeconomic Imbalance Indicators: Statistical Considerations," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(2), pages 293-313.
    6. repec:ces:ifodic:v:10:y:2012:i:2:p:18948043 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Luis Garicano & Tano Santos, 2013. "Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Eurozone," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 145-166, Summer.
    8. Colm McCarthy, 2009. "Fiscal adjustment and re-balancing the Irish economy," Open Access publications 10197/1673, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    9. Cathal O’Donoghue & Jason Loughrey & Denisa M. Sologon, 2018. "Decomposing the Drivers of Changes in Inequality During the Great Recession in Ireland using the Fields Approach," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(2), pages 173-200.
    10. Christopher T. Whelan & Bertrand Maítre, 2013. "The Great Recession and the Changing Distribution of Economic Vulnerability by Social Class: The Irish Case," Working Papers 201312, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    11. Colm McCarthy, 2009. "Fiscal adjustment and macroeconomic re-balancing in Ireland," Working Papers 200928, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    12. Nyamdash, Batsaikhan & Denny, Eleanor, 2011. "The economic impact of electricity conservation policies: A case study of Ireland," MPRA Paper 28384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Adele Bergin & Elish Kelly & Paul Redmond, 2020. "The labor market in Ireland, 2000–2018," World of Labour, LISER, pages 410-410, January.
    14. Lunn, Pete, 2011. "The Role of Decision-Making Biases in Ireland's Banking Crisis," Papers WP389, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. John FitzGerald, 2019. "Contributing to Macro-Economic Policy in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(4), pages 613-623.
    16. Mac an Bhaird, Ciarán, 2013. "Demand for debt and equity before and after the financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 105-117.
    17. Donnellan, T. & Hanrahan, K. & Breen, James P. & Gillespie, P., 2013. "Climate Change and Agricultural Policy Coherence: Agricultural Growth and GHG Emissions in Ireland," 87th Annual Conference, April 8-10, 2013, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 158853, Agricultural Economics Society.
    18. Constantin Gurdgiev & Brian M. Lucey & Ciarán Mac an Bhaird & Lorcan Roche-Kelly, 2011. "The Irish Economy: Three Strikes and You’re Out?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(1), pages 19-41, March.
    19. Seán Ó Riain, 2012. "The Crisis of Financialisation in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(4), pages 497-533.
    20. Elish Kelly & Adele Bergin, 2018. "The labor market in Ireland, 2000–2016," World of Labour, LISER, pages 410-410, January.
    21. Karl Whelan, 2011. "Ireland’s Sovereign Debt Crisis," Working Papers 201109, School of Economics, University College Dublin.

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