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Prospects for growth in the Euro area

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  • Karl Whelan
  • Kieran McQuinn

Abstract

We review the recent performance of the Euro area economy, focusing in detail on the separate roles played by labour input, capital input, and total factor productivity (TFP). After a long period of catching up with US levels of labour productivity, Euro area productivity growth has, since the mid-1990s, fallen significantly behind. We show that this recent divergence has accelerated since 2000, and that this is mainly due to the poor rate of Euro area TFP growth. Based on prevailing trends, we estimate that potential output growth in the Euro area currently may be running as low as 1.5 percent per year. In addition, if TFP growth stays at recent levels, the output growth rate will decline further due to weaker capital deepening. To consider future Euro area prospects for growth, we examine a set of alternative scenarios, each of which posits a potential increase in a determinant of output growth. One of these scenarios focuses on the potential effects of greater labour market deregulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl Whelan & Kieran McQuinn, 2006. "Prospects for growth in the Euro area," Open Access publications 10197/217, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/217
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/217
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
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    3. Sapir, Andre & Aghion, Philippe & Bertola, Giuseppe & Hellwig, Martin & Pisani-Ferry, Jean & Rosati, Dariusz & Vinals, Jose & Wallace, Helen, 2004. "An Agenda for a Growing Europe: The Sapir Report," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199271498.
    4. Whelan, Karl, 2002. "A Guide to U.S. Chain Aggregated NIPA Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(2), pages 217-233, June.
    5. Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Jul, pages 2-13.
    6. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
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    8. Lawless, Martina, 2006. "Measurement Issues and International Comparisons of Output and Productivity Growth," MPRA Paper 10007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "The Economic Future of Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
    10. Lawless, Martina, 2006. "Measurement Issues and Int. Comparisons of Output and Productivity Growth," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 108-120, April.
    11. Angela Maddaloni & Alberto Musso & Philipp Rother & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger & Thomas Westermann, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of demographic developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 51, European Central Bank.
    12. Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2005. "Assessing potential output growth in the euro area - a growth accounting perspective," Occasional Paper Series 22, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karl Whelan, 2010. "Policy Lessons from Ireland’s Latest Depression," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 41(2), pages 225-254.
    2. Duffy, David & McQuinn, Kieran & Byrne, David & Morley, Ciara, 2014. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2014," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20144, April.
    3. Marcelo Sánchez, 2012. "Structural Reform and Transparency in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 559-577, July.
    4. McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2015. "Demographics and the Growth Outlook for Europe," Research Notes RN2015/1/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Linehan, Suzanne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2008. "A Sectoral Analysis of the Average Work Week in Euro Area Countries," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 68-88, October.
    6. Byrne, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Irish Economic Performance 1987-2013: A Growth Accounting Assessment," Research Notes RN2014/4/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic development--European Union countries; Industrial productivity--European Union countries; Labor market--European Union countries;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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