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Prospects for Growth in the Euro Area

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  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • Whelan, Karl

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

We review the recent performance of the Euro area economy, focusing in detail on the separate roles played by labour input, capital input, and total factor productivity (TFP). After a long period of catching up with US levels of labour productivity, Euro area productivity growth has, since the mid-1990s, fallen significantly behind. We show that this recent divergence has accelerated since 2000, and that this is mainly due to the poor rate of Euro area TFP growth. Based on prevailing trends, we estimate that potential output growth in the Euro area currently may be running as low as 1.5 percent per year. In addition, if TFP growth stays at recent levels, the output growth rate will decline further due to weaker capital deepening. To consider future Euro area prospects for growth, we examine a set of alternative scenarios, each of which posits a potential increase in a determinant of output growth. One of these scenarios focuses on the potential effects of greater labour market deregulation.

Suggested Citation

  • McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2006. "Prospects for Growth in the Euro Area," Research Technical Papers 12/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:12/rt/06
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    Cited by:

    1. Karl Whelan, 2010. "Policy Lessons from Ireland’s Latest Depression," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 41(2), pages 225-254.
    2. Marcelo Sánchez, 2012. "Structural Reform and Transparency in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 559-577, July.
    3. Keeney, Mary J., 2008. "Wage Inflation and Structural Unemployment in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Linehan, Suzanne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2008. "A Sectoral Analysis of the Average Work Week in Euro Area Countries," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 68-88, October.
    5. Duffy, David & McQuinn, Kieran & Byrne, David & Morley, Ciara, 2014. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2014," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20144, march.
    6. Michael Buchner, 2020. "Fiscal Policy in an Age of Secular Stagnation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 398-429, September.
    7. McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2015. "Demographics and the Growth Outlook for Europe," Research Notes RN2015/1/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Byrne, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Irish Economic Performance 1987-2013: A Growth Accounting Assessment," Research Notes RN2014/4/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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