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Macroeconomic implications of demographic developments in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Angela Maddaloni
  • Alberto Musso
  • Philipp Rother
  • Melanie Ward-Warmedinger
  • Thomas Westermann

Abstract

This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of future demographic trends for economic growth, financial markets and public finances. It shows that in the absence of reforms and responses by economic agents, the currently projected demographic trends imply a decline in average real GDP growth and a severe burden in terms of pay-as-you-go pension and health care systems. Population ageing will change the financial landscape, with a potentially larger role for financial intermediaries and asset prices. All this points to a need to closely monitor demographic change also from a monetary policy perspective. While population projections are surrounded by considerable uncertainty and the effects of demographic change tend to be drawn out, the magnitude of the potential effects calls for an early recognition of this issue. This paper provides some input to the examination of possible policy issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Angela Maddaloni & Alberto Musso & Philipp Rother & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger & Thomas Westermann, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of demographic developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 51, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20060051
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    Cited by:

    1. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.
    2. Kieran McQuinn & Karl Whelan, 2008. "Prospects for Growth in the Euro Area," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 54(4), pages 642-680, December.
    3. Browne, Frank & Doran, David, 2007. "Addressing Puzzles in Monetary Dynamics," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 121-166, October.
    4. Etienne Farvaque & Jerome Hericourt & Gaël Lagadec, 2010. "Central bank independence and ageing," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1167-1171.

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