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Prospects for Growth in the Euro Area

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Listed author(s):
  • Kieran McQuinn
  • Karl Whelan

Abstract

We review the recent performance of the Euro area economy, focusing in detail on the separate roles played by labour input, capital input and total factor productivity (TFP). After a long period of catching up with US levels of labour productivity, Euro area productivity growth has, since the mid-1990s, fallen significantly behind. We show that this recent divergence has accelerated since 2000, and that this is mainly due to the poor rate of Euro area TFP growth. Based on prevailing trends, we estimate that potential output growth in the Euro area currently may be running as low as 1.7 percent per year. In addition, if TFP growth stays at recent levels, the output growth rate will decline further due to weaker capital deepening. To consider future Euro area prospects for growth, we examine a set of alternative scenarios, each of which posits a potential increase in a determinant of output growth. One of these scenarios focuses on the potential effects of greater labour market deregulation. (JEL codes: O10, O47, O52, J11) Copyright , Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifn024
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Article provided by CESifo in its journal CESifo Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 54 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 642-680

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Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:54:y:2008:i:4:p:642-680
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
  • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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  1. Alberto F. Alesina & Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote, 2006. "Work and Leisure in the U.S. and Europe: Why So Different?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 1-100 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Whelan, Karl, 2002. "A Guide to U.S. Chain Aggregated NIPA Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(2), pages 217-233, June.
  3. Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Jul, pages 2-13.
  4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
  5. Lawless, Martina, 2006. "Measurement Issues and International Comparisons of Output and Productivity Growth," MPRA Paper 10007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Angela Maddaloni & Alberto Musso & Philipp Rother & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger & Thomas Westermann, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of demographic developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 51, European Central Bank.
  7. Guido Schwerdt & Jarkko Turunen, 2007. "Growth In Euro Area Labor Quality," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(4), pages 716-734, December.
  8. Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2005. "Assessing potential output growth in the euro area - a growth accounting perspective," Occasional Paper Series 22, European Central Bank.
  9. McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2006. "Conditional Convergence Revisited: Taking Solow Very Seriously," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
  10. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  11. Sapir, Andre & Aghion, Philippe & Bertola, Giuseppe & Hellwig, Martin & Pisani-Ferry, Jean & Rosati, Dariusz & Vinals, Jose & Wallace, Helen, 2004. "An Agenda for a Growing Europe: The Sapir Report," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199271498, April.
  12. Schwerdt, Guido & Turunen, Jarkko, 2006. "Growth in euro area labour quality," Working Paper Series 575, European Central Bank.
  13. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "The Economic Future of Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
  14. Lawless, Martina, 2006. "Measurement Issues and Int. Comparisons of Output and Productivity Growth," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 108-120, April.
  15. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
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Cited by:

  1. Karl Whelan, 2010. "Policy Lessons from Ireland’s Latest Depression," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 41(2), pages 225-254.
  2. Duffy, David & McQuinn, Kieran & Byrne, David & Morley, Ciara, 2014. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2014," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20144, April.
  3. Marcelo Sánchez, 2012. "Structural Reform and Transparency in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 559-577, July.
  4. McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2015. "Demographics and the Growth Outlook for Europe," Research Notes RN2015/1/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  5. Linehan, Suzanne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2008. "A Sectoral Analysis of the Average Work Week in Euro Area Countries," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 68-88, October.
  6. Byrne, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Irish Economic Performance 1987-2013: A Growth Accounting Assessment," Research Notes RN2014/4/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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