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Prospects for Growth in the Euro Area

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  • Kieran McQuinn
  • Karl Whelan

Abstract

We review the recent performance of the Euro area economy, focusing in detail on the separate roles played by labour input, capital input and total factor productivity (TFP). After a long period of catching up with US levels of labour productivity, Euro area productivity growth has, since the mid-1990s, fallen significantly behind. We show that this recent divergence has accelerated since 2000, and that this is mainly due to the poor rate of Euro area TFP growth. Based on prevailing trends, we estimate that potential output growth in the Euro area currently may be running as low as 1.7 percent per year. In addition, if TFP growth stays at recent levels, the output growth rate will decline further due to weaker capital deepening. To consider future Euro area prospects for growth, we examine a set of alternative scenarios, each of which posits a potential increase in a determinant of output growth. One of these scenarios focuses on the potential effects of greater labour market deregulation. (JEL codes: O10, O47, O52, J11) Copyright , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Kieran McQuinn & Karl Whelan, 2008. "Prospects for Growth in the Euro Area," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 54(4), pages 642-680, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:54:y:2008:i:4:p:642-680
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto F. Alesina & Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote, 2006. "Work and Leisure in the U.S. and Europe: Why So Different?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 1-100 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    9. McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2006. "Conditional Convergence Revisited: Taking Solow Very Seriously," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    11. Sapir, Andre & Aghion, Philippe & Bertola, Giuseppe & Hellwig, Martin & Pisani-Ferry, Jean & Rosati, Dariusz & Vinals, Jose & Wallace, Helen, 2004. "An Agenda for a Growing Europe: The Sapir Report," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199271498.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karl Whelan, 2010. "Policy Lessons from Ireland’s Latest Depression," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 41(2), pages 225-254.
    2. Marcelo Sánchez, 2012. "Structural Reform and Transparency in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 559-577, July.
    3. Linehan, Suzanne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2008. "A Sectoral Analysis of the Average Work Week in Euro Area Countries," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 68-88, October.
    4. Duffy, David & McQuinn, Kieran & Byrne, David & Morley, Ciara, 2014. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2014," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20144, April.
    5. McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2015. "Demographics and the Growth Outlook for Europe," Research Notes RN2015/1/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Byrne, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Irish Economic Performance 1987-2013: A Growth Accounting Assessment," Research Notes RN2014/4/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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