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Instrumental Variables In Models With Multiple Outcomes: The General Unordered Case

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  • James J. Heckman
  • Sergio Urzua
  • Edward Vytlacil

Abstract

This paper develops the method of local instrumental variables for mod- els with multiple, unordered treatments when treatment choice is determined by a nonparametric version of the multinomial choice model. Responses to interventions are permitted to be heterogeneous in a general way and agents are allowed to select a treatment (e.g. participate in a program) with at least partial knowledge of the idiosyncratic response to the treatments. We define treatment effects in a general model with multiple treatments as differences in counterfactual outcomes that would have been observed if the agent faced different choice sets. We show how versions of local instrumental variables can identify the corresponding treatment parameters. Direct application of local instrumental variables identi es the marginal treatment effect of one option versus the next best alternative without requiring knowledge of any structural parameters from the choice equation or any large support assumptions. Using local instrumental variables to identify other treatment parameters requires ei- ther large support assumptions or knowledge of the latent index function of the multinomial choice model.

Suggested Citation

  • James J. Heckman & Sergio Urzua & Edward Vytlacil, 2008. "Instrumental Variables In Models With Multiple Outcomes: The General Unordered Case," Working Papers 200830, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:200830
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    File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp200830.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2005. "Structural Equations, Treatment Effects, and Econometric Policy Evaluation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 669-738, May.
    2. Heckman, James J. & Navarro, Salvador, 2007. "Dynamic discrete choice and dynamic treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 341-396, February.
    3. Aakvik, A. & Heckman, J.J. & Vytlacil, E.J., 1999. "Training Effects on Employment when the Training Effects are Heterogenous : an Application to Norwegian Vocational Rehabilitation Programs," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 0599, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
    4. Cameron, Stephen V & Heckman, James J, 1993. "The Nonequivalence of High School Equivalents," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 1-47, January.
    5. James J. Heckman & Sergio Urzua & Edward Vytlacil, 2006. "Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 389-432, August.
    6. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1983. "Generalized Econometric Models with Selectivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 507-512, March.
    7. Jay Bhattacharya & Azeem M. Shaikh & Edward Vytlacil, 2008. "Treatment Effect Bounds under Monotonicity Assumptions: An Application to Swan-Ganz Catheterization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 351-356, May.
    8. James Heckman, 1997. "Instrumental Variables: A Study of Implicit Behavioral Assumptions Used in Making Program Evaluations," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 32(3), pages 441-462.
    9. Gordon B. Dahl, 2002. "Mobility and the Return to Education: Testing a Roy Model with Multiple Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2367-2420, November.
    10. Stephen V. Cameron & James J. Heckman, 1998. "Life Cycle Schooling and Dynamic Selection Bias: Models and Evidence for Five Cohorts of American Males," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 262-333, April.
    11. Heckman, James J. & Vytlacil, Edward J., 2000. "The relationship between treatment parameters within a latent variable framework," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 33-39, January.
    12. James Heckman & Neil Hohmann & Jeffrey Smith & Michael Khoo, 2000. "Substitution and Dropout Bias in Social Experiments: A Study of an Influential Social Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(2), pages 651-694.
    13. Edward Vytlacil, 2002. "Independence, Monotonicity, and Latent Index Models: An Equivalence Result," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 331-341, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2011. "Estimating Marginal Returns to Education," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2754-2781, October.
    2. Heckman, James J. & Urzúa, Sergio, 2010. "Comparing IV with structural models: What simple IV can and cannot identify," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 27-37, May.
    3. repec:eee:pubeco:v:158:y:2018:i:c:p:79-102 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Heckman, James J. & Humphries, John Eric & Veramendi, Gregory, 2016. "Dynamic treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 276-292.
    5. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Furdas, Marina & Sajons, Christoph, 2016. "End-of-year spending and the long-run employment effects of training programs for the unemployed," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-084, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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