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Where to Spend Foreign Aid to Counter Terrorism

  • Azam, Jean-Paul
  • Thelen, Véronique

A simple game-theoretic model is first presented to bring out the conditions for terrorist organizations to choose to perpetrate their attacks in a host country other than at home. This emphasizes the diluted impact of counter-terrorism measures implemented in the host-country on the number of attacks taking place there. These measures might attract more imported attacks and mainly impact the number of attacks exported by the domestic terrorists without affecting much the overall level of terrorist activity in the host country. The empirical results presented provide some support to this prediction, by contrasting the econometric equations that explain the number of attacks per country of origin vs. per host country. A dyadic analysis is also presented. These analyses confirm the role of foreign aid as a counterterrorism measure in the source country, but it raises the issue of its role in the host country. Although foreign aid is confirmed as an effective tool for reducing the total number of attacks produced, it affects the venue of these terrorist attacks. Military interventions are mostly counterproductive, as they seem to be a strong attraction factor for terrorists.

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Paper provided by Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) in its series TSE Working Papers with number 12-316.

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Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:25949
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  1. Jean-Paul Azam & Alexandra Delacroix, 2006. "Aid and the Delegated Fight Against Terrorism," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 330-344, 05.
  2. Azam, Jean-Paul & Thelen, Véronique, 2007. "The Roles of Foreign Aid and Education in the War on Terror," IDEI Working Papers 449, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  3. Burnside, Craig & Dollar, David, 1997. "Aid, policies, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1777, The World Bank.
  4. Navin A Bapat, 2011. "Transnational Terrorism, US Military Aid, and the Incentive to Misrepresent," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 303-318, May.
  5. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2011. "Foreign direct investment, aid, and terrorism: an analysis of developing countries," Working Papers 2011-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2009. "Foreign aid as counterterrorism policy," Working Papers 2009-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Azam, Jean-Paul & Thelen, Véronique, 2009. "Foreign Aid vs. Military Intervention in the War on Terror," TSE Working Papers 09-061, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  8. Frey, Bruno S., 1984. "The public choice view of international political economy," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(01), pages 199-223, December.
  9. Joseph Young & Michael Findley, 2011. "Can peace be purchased? A sectoral-level analysis of aid’s influence on transnational terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 365-381, December.
  10. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2003. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
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