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Credit Ratings and Bank Monitoring Ability

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  • Nakamura, L.I.
  • Roszbach, K.

Abstract

In this paper we use credit rating data from two Swedish banks to elicit evidence on these banks’ loan monitoring ability. We do so by comparing the ability of bank ratings to predict loan defaults relative to that of public ratings from the Swedish credit bureau. We test the banks’ abilility to forecast the credit bureau’s ratings and vice versa. We show that one of the banks has a superior predictive ability relative to the credit bureau. This is evidence that bank credit ratings do contain valuable private information and suggests they may be be a reasonable basis for risk management. However, public ratings are also found to have predictive ability for future bank ratings, indicating that risk analysis should be based on both public and bank ratings. The methods we use represent a new basket of straightforward techniques that enable both financial institutions and regulators to assess the performance of credit ratings systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Nakamura, L.I. & Roszbach, K., 2010. "Credit Ratings and Bank Monitoring Ability," Discussion Paper 2010-37S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:851b3292-b85c-48fe-a4af-f5a2de8e6c56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-667, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Leonard Nakamura, 2014. "Durable Financial Regulation: Monitoring Financial Instruments as a Counterpart to Regulating Financial Institutions," NBER Chapters,in: Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy, pages 67-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2006. "Internal ratings systems, implied credit risk and the consistency of banks' risk classification policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1899-1926, July.
    3. Miloš Božovic & Branko Uroševic & Boško Živkovic, 2011. "Credit Rating Agencies and Moral Hazard," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(2), pages 219-227, June.
    4. Marieke Bos & Leonard I. Nakamura, 2012. "Should defaults be forgotten? Evidence from legally mandated removal," Working Papers 12-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 01 Apr 2013.
    5. Rym Ayadi & Beat Bernet & Simone Westerfeld & Tom Franck & Nancy Huyghebaert & Vítor Gaspar & Simona Bovha-Padilla & Reinhilde Veugelers, 2009. "Financing of SMEs in Europe," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    6. Nakamura, Leonard I. & Roszbach, Kasper, 2016. "Credit Ratings, Private Information, and Bank Monitoring Ability," Working Papers 16-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. repec:fip:fedpwp:13-2 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monitoring; banks; credit bureau; private information; ratings; regulation; supervision;

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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