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Credit ratings and bank monitoring ability

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  • Leonard I. Nakamura
  • Kasper Roszbach

Abstract

In this paper we use credit rating data from two large Swedish banks to elicit evidence on banks’ loan monitoring ability. For these banks, our tests reveal that banks’ credit ratings indeed include valuable private information from monitoring, as theory suggests. However, our tests also reveal that publicly available information from a credit bureau is not efficiently impounded in the bank ratings: The credit bureau ratings not only predict future movements in the bank ratings but also improve forecasts of bankruptcy and loan default. We investigate possible explanations for these findings. Our results are consistent with bank loan officers placing too much weight on their private information, a form of overconfidence. To the extent that overconfidence results in placing too much weight on private information, risk analyses of the bank loan portfolios in our data could be improved by combining the bank credit ratings and public credit bureau ratings. The methods we use represent a new basket of straightforward techniques that enable both financial institutions and regulators to assess the performance of credit rating systems. ; Supersedes Working Paper 10-21.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard I. Nakamura & Kasper Roszbach, 2013. "Credit ratings and bank monitoring ability," Working Papers 13-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:13-21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-667, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rym Ayadi & Beat Bernet & Simone Westerfeld & Tom Franck & Nancy Huyghebaert & Vítor Gaspar & Simona Bovha-Padilla & Reinhilde Veugelers, 2009. "Financing of SMEs in Europe," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    2. Nakamura, Leonard I. & Roszbach, Kasper, 2016. "Credit Ratings, Private Information, and Bank Monitoring Ability," Working Papers 16-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Leonard Nakamura, 2014. "Durable Financial Regulation: Monitoring Financial Instruments as a Counterpart to Regulating Financial Institutions," NBER Chapters,in: Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy, pages 67-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2006. "Internal ratings systems, implied credit risk and the consistency of banks' risk classification policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1899-1926, July.
    5. repec:fip:fedpwp:13-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Miloš Božovic & Branko Uroševic & Boško Živkovic, 2011. "Credit Rating Agencies and Moral Hazard," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(2), pages 219-227, June.
    7. Marieke Bos & Leonard I. Nakamura, 2012. "Should defaults be forgotten? Evidence from legally mandated removal," Working Papers 12-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 01 Apr 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit ratings ; Risk assessment;

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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