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An Impartial Look at Asset Correlation Stability and Market Structure

Author

Listed:
  • Etienne Wijler

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Andre Lucas

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute)

Abstract

We develop a data-driven procedure to identify which correlations in high-dimensional dynamic systems should be time-varying, constant, or zero. The method integrates a vine-based multivariate partial correlation model with sequential penalized estimation. Applied to 50 US equities and systematic risk factors, results indicate that asset-level correlation dynamics are primarily induced by time-varying exposures to systematic factors. We further uncover persistent, non-zero, and occasionally time-varying partial correlations within industries, even after controlling for standard risk and industry factors. Finally, we show how the new methodology may be used to explore the relevance of systematic risk factors in an impartial way.

Suggested Citation

  • Etienne Wijler & Andre Lucas, 2025. "An Impartial Look at Asset Correlation Stability and Market Structure," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-051/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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