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A macroeconomic assessment of the Italian Recovery and Resilience Plan from administrative data

Author

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  • Giovanni Di Bartolomeo
  • Paolo D'Imperio

Abstract

This paper assesses the macroeconomic and distributional impact of the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan. Using a large-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model adapted to capture the effects of the plan's instruments, the study maps the NRRP into the model through granular administrative information available at the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance. The results suggest a sizable impact on key macroeconomic variables, mainly driven by public and private investment. The plan also affects the functional distribution of income: profits decline in the early years because of increased labor and capital demand, but subsequently rise above their initial level as GDP increases. Overall, the analysis highlights that the selection, design, and implementation of public-investment programs are crucial for the success of the plan, and that structural reforms should play an important complementary role.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Paolo D'Imperio, 2023. "A macroeconomic assessment of the Italian Recovery and Resilience Plan from administrative data," CIMEO Working Paper Series 169, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    • Handle: RePEc:ter:wpaper:00169
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    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F54 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Colonialism; Imperialism; Postcolonialism
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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