IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/szg/worpap/1108.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction: A Probabilistic Multi-Agent Model

Author

Abstract

We develop a multi-agent framework based on probabilistic cellular automata theory to describe off-equilibrium dynamics in the context of the economic problem of price adjustment in different strategic situations as investigated experimentally by Fehr and Tyran (2001) and (2008). It is found that the main experimental findings, namely suboptimal aggregate behavior in terms of sluggish adjustment after a fully anticipated money shock, can be reproduced and largely explained by the interaction of sophisticated and naive agents. Furthermore, a range of conceptual issues as e.g. the source of endogenous beliefs on the other players rationality is addressed within our multi-agent framework. We find that, if costs/payoffs act as driver of rational behavior, then endogenous beliefs and consequential aggregate behavior are driven by the particular off-equilibrium time-dependent payoff/cost profile rather than by total off- equilibrium payoffs/costs that naive agents face in the respective strategic situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yves Ortiz & Martin schüle, 2011. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction: A Probabilistic Multi-Agent Model," Working Papers 11.08, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    • Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:1108
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.szgerzensee.ch/fileadmin/Dateien_Anwender/Dokumente/working_papers/wp-1108.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: None
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haltiwanger, John & Waldman, Michael, 1985. "Rational Expectations and the Limits of Rationality: An Analysis of Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 326-340, June.
    2. Cooper, Russell W. & Johri, Alok, 1997. "Dynamic complementarities: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 97-119, September.
    3. Russell Cooper & Andrew John, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 441-463.
    4. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2008. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction: The Impact of the Strategic Environment on Nominal Inertia," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 353-394, March.
    5. John Haltiwanger & Michael Waldman, 1989. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Complements: The Implications for Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(3), pages 463-483.
    6. Javier Rivas, 2008. "Learning within a Markovian Environment," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/13, European University Institute.
    7. Kosfeld, Michael & Droste, Edward & Voorneveld, Mark, 2002. "A myopic adjustment process leading to best-reply matching," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 270-298, August.
    8. Douglas D. Davis & Korenok Oleg, 2010. "Nominal Price Shocks in Monopolistically Competitive Markets: An Experimental Analysis," Working Papers 1003, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2011.
    9. Droste, Edward & Kosfeld, Michael & Voorneveld, Mark, 2003. "Best-reply matching in games," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 291-309, December.
    10. Vives, Xavier, 1990. "Nash equilibrium with strategic complementarities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 305-321.
    11. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2001. "Does Money Illusion Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1239-1262, December.
    12. Colin F. Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho & Juin-Kuan Chong, 2004. "A Cognitive Hierarchy Model of Games," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 861-898.
    13. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1990. "Rationalizability, Learning, and Equilibrium in Games with Strategic Complementarities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1255-1277, November.
    14. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1996. "Evidence on Macroeconomic Complementarities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 78-93, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bulutay, Muhammed & Cornand, Camille & Zylbersztejn, Adam, 2022. "Learning to deal with repeated shocks under strategic complementarity: An experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1318-1343.
    2. Giamattei, Marcus, 2015. "Cold Turkey vs. Gradualism - Evidence on Disinflation Strategies from a Laboratory Experiment," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-67-15, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    3. Lambsdorff, Johann Graf & Schubert, Manuel & Giamattei, Marcus, 2013. "On the role of heuristics—Experimental evidence on inflation dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1213-1229.
    4. Cooper, Kristen & Schneider, Henry & Waldman, Michael, 2021. "Limited rationality and the strategic environment: Further evidence from a pricing game," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 43-66, Fall.
    6. Cooper, Kristen B. & Schneider, Henry S. & Waldman, Michael, 2017. "Limited rationality and the strategic environment: Further theory and experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 188-208.
    7. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2015. "Macro-expérimentation autour des fonctions des banques centrales," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 3-47.
    8. Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Koriyama, Yukio & Sutan, Angela & Willinger, Marc, 2019. "The strategic environment effect in beauty contest games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 587-610.
    9. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
    10. Helena Chytilová & Zdeněk Chytil, 2014. "Ekonomické vzdělání a peněžní iluze, experimentální přístup [Economic Education and Money Illusion: An Experimental Approach]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(4), pages 500-520.
    11. Oddvar M. Kaarbøe & Alexander F. Tieman, 0000. "Equilibrium Selection in Games with Macroeconomic Complementarities," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-096/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2001. "Heterogeneous forecasts and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 145-161, February.
    13. Kets, Willemien & Kager, Wouter & Sandroni, Alvaro, 2022. "The value of a coordination game," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    14. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2008. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction: The Impact of the Strategic Environment on Nominal Inertia," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 353-394, March.
    15. Bomfim, Antulio N & Diebold, Francis X, 1997. "Bonded Rationality and Strategic Complementarity in a Macroeconomic Model: Policy Effects, Persistence and Multipliers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1358-1374, September.
    16. Hacıoğlu, Volkan, 2015. "Bayesian Expectations and Strategic Complementarity: Implications for Macroeconomic Stability," MPRA Paper 75397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2020. "Cognitive ability and observed behavior in laboratory experiments: implications for macroeconomic theory," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 355-378, July.
    18. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "It is Not Just Confusion! Strategic Uncertainty in An Experimental Asset Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 563-580, October.
    19. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Amihai Glazer, 1996. "Politics With And Without Policy†," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 251-265, November.
    20. Randal J. Verbrugge, 1998. "Local Complementarities and Aggregate Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 9809016, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Sep 1998.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:1108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://szgerzensee.ch/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.