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Fates of indebted households during the Corona crisis: Survey results from Slovakia

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  • Alexander Karsay

    (National Bank of Slovakia)

Abstract

The study presents main structural and cyclical drivers most likely driving unemployment rate developments in the period of the recent labour market expansion in Slovakia in 2014-2019. It presents estimates of the impact of individual drivers on structural unemployment rate using panel regression methods. The contributions of drivers to unemployment developments are presented for V4 countries. We also provide a hint as to likely future drivers of unemployment in the Slovak Republic in coming years. The 2014-2019 period in Slovakia was characterised by both a structural and cyclical decline in unemployment. The structural decline was driven by active labour market policies, demography, workforce mobility, to some extent higher quality of human capital and labour productivity. The current pandemic crisis causes an upward adjustment of unemployment unwinding previous imbalance. This is accompanied by efforts to increase efficiency of production processes due to general automation drive as well as potential lagged impacts of dynamic growth of labour costs. These factors could potentially offset other opposite structural forces, namely demography and potential output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Karsay, 2021. "Fates of indebted households during the Corona crisis: Survey results from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2021, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    • Handle: RePEc:svk:wpaper:1078
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    References listed on IDEAS

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