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A case study on Germany's aviation tax using the synthetic control approach

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  • Daniel Borebly

    () (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

The German Aviation Tax (AT) is a tax levied on departing passengers from German airports. The synthetic control method is used to generate counterfactual passenger numbers for German airports. The synthetic control method is used to generate counterfactual passenger numbers for German airports, and for airports outside Germany but near the German border. The results presented are consistent with cross-border substitution of passenger demand in response to AT. Most AT exempt airports near the borders have made sizable, significant, gains in passenger numbers since Germany introduced AT. Within Germany, there appears to be a clear distinction in the impact on small/regional airports and that on larger hubs.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Borebly, 2018. "A case study on Germany's aviation tax using the synthetic control approach," Working Papers 1816, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1816
    as

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    File URL: https://www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwebsite/departmentsubject/economics/research/researchdiscussionpapers/18-16.pdf.pagespeed.ce.NHuokRI_T-.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Søren Bo Nielsen, 2001. "A Simple Model of Commodity Taxation and Cross‐border Shopping," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(4), pages 599-623, December.
    2. Frédéric Dobruszkes, 2006. "An analysis of European low-cost airlines and their networks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/95835, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Bibek Adhikari & James Alm, 2016. "Evaluating the Economic Effects of Flat Tax Reforms Using Synthetic Control Methods," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 437-463, October.
    4. Asplund, Marcus & Friberg, Richard & Wilander, Fredrik, 2007. "Demand and distance: Evidence on cross-border shopping," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 141-157, February.
    5. repec:eee:jotrge:v:50:y:2016:i:c:p:45-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    7. Hess, Stephane & Polak, John W., 2005. "Mixed logit modelling of airport choice in multi-airport regions," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 59-68.
    8. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aviation taxes; passenger demand; synthetic control;

    JEL classification:

    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation

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