IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spa/wpaper/2019wpecon44.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimation of maximum debt for emerging countries: An analysis by fiscal reaction function

Author

Listed:
  • Rai da Silva Chicoli
  • Siegfried Bender

Abstract

Through a fiscal reaction function that verifies the hypothesis of fiscal fatigue, for a group of 19 emerging countries over the period 2003-2016, and with hypothesis about the difference between interest rate and economic growth, this article seeks to obtain the debt limit for this group of countries. As a result, we confirm the hypothesis of fiscal fatigue, even for robustness exercises, with a reduction of marginal primary result to levels of debt around 70% of GDP and negative marginal primary result around 110% of GDP, well below the results for advanced economies around 100% and 150% of GDP, respectively. In addition, we observed average debt limit around 154% and 128% of GDP for deterministic and stochastic cases, with a significant fiscal space for most countries, except for Croatia, Brazil and Hungary, where a fiscal adjustment must be done to reduce current debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Rai da Silva Chicoli & Siegfried Bender, 2019. "Estimation of maximum debt for emerging countries: An analysis by fiscal reaction function," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_44, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2019wpecon44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.repec.eae.fea.usp.br/documentos/Chicoli_Bender_44WP.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    2. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2008. "International evidence on fiscal solvency: Is fiscal policy "responsible"?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1081-1093, September.
    3. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    4. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    5. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
    6. Everaert, Gerdie & Jansen, Stijn, 2018. "On the estimation of panel fiscal reaction functions: Heterogeneity or fiscal fatigue?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 87-96.
    7. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    8. Collier, Paul & Goderis, Benedikt, 2012. "Commodity prices and growth: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1241-1260.
    9. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Gerdie Everaert & Stijn Jansen, 2017. "On The Estimation Of Panel Fiscal Functions: Heterogeneity Or Fiscal Fatigue?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/930, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Roberto Rigobon & Marcio Garcia, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an application to Brazilian data," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 24, Econometric Society.
    12. Katia Berti & Eugeniu Colesnic & Cyril Desponts & Stephanie Pamies & Etienne Sail, 2016. "Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 028, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    14. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    15. Dehn, Jan, 2000. "The effects on growth of commodity price uncertainty and shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2455, The World Bank.
    16. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper, 2013. "Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability," Staff Working Papers 13-27, Bank of Canada.
    17. Tran, Ngan, 2018. "Debt threshold for fiscal sustainability assessment in emerging economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 375-394.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    2. Okwoche Princewill U. & Iheonu Chimere O., 2021. "Determinants of fiscal effort in sub-Saharan African countries: Does conflict matter?," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 50-73, June.
    3. Everaert, Gerdie & Jansen, Stijn, 2018. "On the estimation of panel fiscal reaction functions: Heterogeneity or fiscal fatigue?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 87-96.
    4. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Žďárek, Václav, 2017. "Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2036, European Central Bank.
    5. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    6. Tamborini, Roberto & Tomaselli, Matteo, 2020. "The determinants of austerity in the European Union 2010–16," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    7. Taner Turan & Pelin Varol Iyidogan, 2022. "Estimating Fiscal Reaction Functions for Developing and Developed Countries: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(5), pages 393-410, May.
    8. António Afonso & José Alves & Oļegs Matvejevs & Oļegs Tkačevs, 2023. "Fiscal Sustainability and the Role of Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10843, CESifo.
    9. Lankester-Campos, Valerie & Loaiza-Marín, Kerry & Monge-Badilla, Carlos, 2020. "Assessing public debt sustainability for Costa Rica using the fiscal reaction function," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    10. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    11. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2022. "Fiscal reaction functions for the advanced economies revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2865-2891, June.
    12. Katia Berti & Eugeniu Colesnic & Cyril Desponts & Stephanie Pamies & Etienne Sail, 2016. "Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 028, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Marchesi, Silvia & Missale, Alessandro, 2013. "Did High Debts Distort Loan and Grant Allocation to IDA Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 44-62.
    14. Hyejin Ko, 2020. "Measuring fiscal sustainability in the welfare state: fiscal space as fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 531-554, May.
    15. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2022. "Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Xavier Debrun & Tidiane Kinda, 2016. "That Squeezing Feeling: The Interest Burden and Public Debt Stabilization," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 147-178, June.
    18. Pedro Maia & Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 2011. "A gerência recente do endividamento público brasileiro," Textos para discussão 595, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    19. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Discussion Paper 2022-021, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    20. Karsten Staehr & Oļegs TkaÄ evs & Katri Urke, 2023. "Fiscal performance under inflation and inflation surprises:evidence from fiscal reaction functions for the Euro Area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2023-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 20 Jun 2023.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt Limit; Fiscal Fatigue; Fiscal Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2019wpecon44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pedro Garcia Duarte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuspbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.