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Double Asymptotics for Explosive Continuous Time Models

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaohu Wang

    () (School of Economics and Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, Singapore Management University)

  • Jun Yu

    () (Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, School of Economics and Lee Kong Chian School of Business)

Abstract

This paper develops a double asymptotic limit theory for the persistent parameter (k) in explosive continuous time models driven by Lévy processes with a large number of time span (N) and a small number of sampling interval (h). The simultaneous double asymptotic theory is derived using a technique in the same spirit as in Phillips and Magdalinos (2007) for the mildly explosive discrete time model. Both the intercept term and the initial condition appear in the limiting distribution. In the special case of explosive continuous time models driven by the Brownian motion, we develop the limit theory that allows for the joint limits where N ! 1 and h ! 0 simultaneously, the sequential limits where N ! 1 is followed by h ! 0, and the sequential limits where h ! 0 is followed by N ! 1. All three asymptotic distributions are the same.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaohu Wang & Jun Yu, 2012. "Double Asymptotics for Explosive Continuous Time Models," Working Papers 16-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:16-2012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    3. Tang, Cheng Yong & Chen, Song Xi, 2009. "Parameter estimation and bias correction for diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 65-81, April.
    4. Park, Joon, 2003. "Weak Unit Roots," Working Papers 2003-17, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2014. "Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behaviour," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 315-333, June.
    6. Yu, Jun, 2014. "Econometric Analysis Of Continuous Time Models: A Survey Of Peter Phillips’S Work And Some New Results," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 737-774, August.
    7. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2003. "The Finite Moment Log Stable Process and Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 753-778, April.
    8. Magdalinos, Tassos, 2012. "Mildly explosive autoregression under weak and strong dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 179-187.
    9. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2009. "Simulation-Based Estimation of Contingent-Claims Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3669-3705, September.
    10. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    11. Qiankun Zhou & Jun Yu, 2010. "Asymptotic Distributions of the Least Squares Estimator for Diffusion Processes," Working Papers 20-2010, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    12. Wang, Xiaohu & Yu, Jun, 2015. "Limit theory for an explosive autoregressive process," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 176-180.
    13. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    14. Perron, Pierre, 1991. "A Continuous Time Approximation to the Unstable First-Order Autoregressive Process: The Case without an Intercept," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 211-236, January.
    15. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1079-1134, November.
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    19. Zhou, Qiankun & Yu, Jun, 2015. "Asymptotic theory for linear diffusions under alternative sampling schemes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 1-5.
    20. Aue, Alexander & Horv th, Lajos, 2007. "A Limit Theorem For Mildly Explosive Autoregression With Stable Errors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 201-220, April.
    21. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Magdalinos, Tassos, 2007. "Limit theory for moderate deviations from a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 115-130, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:econom:v:201:y:2017:i:2:p:400-416 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Tao, Yubo & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Yu, Jun, 2017. "Random Coefficient Continuous Systems: Testing for Extreme Sample Path Behaviour," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 18-2017, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    3. Xiao, Weilin & Yu, Jun, 2018. "Asymptotic Theory for Rough Fractional Vasicek Models," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 7-2018, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Explosive; Continuous Time; Lévy Process; Invariance Principle; Double Asymptotics;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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