Convertibility Restriction Determination in China's Foreign Exchange Market and its Impact of Forward Pricing
Different from the well established markets such as the dollar-Euro market, recent CIP deviations observed in the onshore dollar-RMB forward market were caused by conversion restrictions in the spot market rather than changes in credit risk and/or liquidity constraint. This paper proposes a theoretical framework under which the Chinese authorities impose conversion restrictions in the spot market in an attempt to achieve capital flow balance, but faces the tradeoff between achieving such balance and disturbing current account transactions when determining the level of conversion restriction. Such conversion restriction in turn places a binding constraint on forward traders’ ability to cover their forward positions, resulting in the observed CIP deviation. In particular, the model predicts that onshore forward rate is equal to a weighted average of CIP-implied forward rate and the market’s expectation of future spot rate, with the weight determined by the level of conversion restriction. As a secondary result, the model also implies that offshore non-deliverable forwards reflect to the market’s expectation of future spot rate. Empirical results are consistent with these predictions.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 366 Galvez Street, Stanford, California 94305-6015|
Phone: (650) 725-1874
Fax: (650) 723-8611
Web page: http://siepr.stanford.edu
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fung, Hung-Gay & LEUNG, Wai K. & Zhu, Jiang, 2004. "Nondeliverable forward market for Chinese RMB: A first look," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 348-352.
- Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Liquidity risk, credit risk, and the Federal Reserve's responses to the crisis," Staff Reports 389, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-84, April.
- Akram, Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008.
"Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
- Q. Farooq Akram, & Dagfinn Rime & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Working Paper 2005/12, Norges Bank.
- Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2006. "Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope," SIFR Research Report Series 42, Institute for Financial Research.
- S. C. Tsiang, 1959. "The Theory of Forward Exchange and Effects of Government Intervention on the Forward Exchange Market," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 75-106, April.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Xingwang Qian, 2010.
"Capital Flight: China's Experience,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2931, CESifo Group Munich.
- Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Angelo Ranaldo, 2010.
"Limits to arbitrage during the crisis: funding liquidity constraints and covered interest parity,"
2010-14, Swiss National Bank.
- Mancini Griffoli, Tommaso & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2012. "Limits to Arbitrage during the Crisis: Finding Liquidity Constraints and Covered Interest Parity," Working Papers on Finance 1212, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
- Guonan Ma & Corrinne Ho & Robert N McCauley, 2004. "The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
- Niall Coffey & Warren B. Hrung & Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Capital constraints, counterparty risk, and deviations from covered interest rate parity," Staff Reports 393, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Guonan Ma & RobertN McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, 02.
- Holmes, Mark J., 2001. "Some new evidence on exchange rates, capital controls and European Union financial integration," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 135-146.
- K. Yudaeva., 2010. "On the Exchange Rate Policy," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sip:dpaper:09-024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne Shor)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.