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Towering over Babel: Worlds Apart but Acting Together

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In this paper we propose a new class of tests for the martingale difference hypothesis based on the moment conditions derived by Bierens (1982). In contrast with the existing consistent tests, the proposed test has a standard limiting distribution and is easy to implement. Comparing with the commonly used autocorrelation- and spectrum-based tests, it has power against a much larger class of alternatives that may be serially correlated or uncorrelated. Moreover, this test does not rely on the assumption of conditional homoskedasticity and requires a weaker moment condition. Our simulations confirm that the proposed test is powerful against various linear and nonlinear alternatives and is quite robust to the failure of higher-order moments. Our empirical study on exchange rate returns also shows that the conclusion resulted from the proposed test is different from that of the conventional tests.

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  • Joseph Greenberg & Sudheer Gupta & Xiao Luo, 2003. "Towering over Babel: Worlds Apart but Acting Together," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 03-A009, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
  • Handle: RePEc:sin:wpaper:03-a009
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    1. Asheim, Geir B. & Perea, Andres, 2005. "Sequential and quasi-perfect rationalizability in extensive games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 15-42, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games

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