Economic Scenarios for Poland

179th mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings presents economic scenarios for Poland discussed by Polish economists in November 2023, shortly after the parliamentary elections that ended the eight-year rule of the Law and Justice party. The experts analyzed the country’s macroeconomic situation, growth prospects, and the consequences of the populist policies from 2016–2023. They highlighted current challenges such as labor market imbalances, high inflation, an expansionary fiscal policy, and the issue of an aging population. They also provided recommendations for monetary, fiscal, educational, and immigration policies. In addition to short-term challenges like very low unemployment and rising labor costs, the authors emphasize the need for a deliberate approach to economic policy. In the longer term, we face the challenge of diminishing potential to converge further with the more developed economies of the European Union. An aging population and the anticipated slowdown in productivity growth require us to take structural action. The experts suggest that only by increasing innovation, improving education quality, and creating conditions for well-integrated immigration will we be able to maintain sustainable economic growth in the coming decades.