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Co-evolution vs. Neural Networks; An Evaluation of UK Risky Money

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Listed:
  • Alicia Gazely
  • Jane Binner
  • Graham Kendall

Abstract

The performance of a "capital certain" Divisia index constructed using the same components included in the Bank of England"s MSI plus national savings; a "risky" Divisia index constructed by adding bonds, shares and unit trusts to the list of assets included in the first index; and a capital certain simple sum index for comparison is compared. nce suggests that co-evolutionary strategies are superior to neural networks in the majority of cases. The risky money index performs at least as well as the Bank of England Divisia index when combined with interest rate information. Notably, the provision of long term interest rates improves the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the Bank of England Divisia index in all cases examined

Suggested Citation

  • Alicia Gazely & Jane Binner & Graham Kendall, 2004. "Co-evolution vs. Neural Networks; An Evaluation of UK Risky Money," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 258, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1142-1151, December.
    3. Elger Thomas & Binner Jane M., 2004. "The UK Household Sector Demand for Risky Money," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Paul Fisher & Suzanne Hudson & Mahmood Pradhan, 1993. "Divisia Indices for Money: An Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Bank of England working papers 9, Bank of England.
    5. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," Macroeconomics 0503017, EconWPA.
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    7. Jane M. Binner & Alicia M. Gazely & Shu-Heng Chen, 2002. "Financial innovation and Divisia monetary indices in Taiwan: a neural network approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 238-247, June.
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    13. J. M. Binner & A. Fielding & A. W. Mullineux, 1999. "Divisia money in a composite leading indicator of inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 1021-1031.
    14. Dorsey, Robert E & Mayer, Walter J, 1995. "Genetic Algorithms for Estimation Problems with Multiple Optima, Nondifferentiability, and Other Irregular Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 53-66, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evolutionary Strategies; Risk Adjusted Divisia; Inflation; Neural Networks;

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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