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Unravelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of unemployment rates in district municipalities in South Africa: A disaggregated analysis for informed policymaking

Author

Listed:
  • Yegnanew A Shiferaw

    (Department of Statistics, University of Johannesburg)

Abstract

Statistics South Africa serves as a crucial source of national and provincial data. However, obtaining detailed estimates of the unemployment rate at more localized levels often poses challenges due to insufficient sample sizes for reliable estimates. This issue is further complicated when data is disaggregated by gender and age groups. This study utilizes a spatiotemporal small area estimation technique to address these challenges. This approach combines spatial and temporal dimensions, employing data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey and the 2016 Community Survey. The results indicate that women encounter greater barriers to employment than men. Additionally, unemployment rates are notably high among the youth age groups. The study also reveals a substantial gap between urban and rural districts in South Africa. These findings are vital for identifying districts and demographic groups with high unemployment rates. This information can inform targeted and effective policy measures to reduce unemployment and improve job opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Yegnanew A Shiferaw, 2025. "Unravelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of unemployment rates in district municipalities in South Africa: A disaggregated analysis for informed policymaking," ERSA Working Paper Series 140, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    • Handle: RePEc:rza:ersawp:140
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    File URL: https://ersawps.org/index.php/working-paper-series/article/view/140/173
    File Function: First version, 2025
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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