The costs of electricity systems with a high share of fluctuating renewables - a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model for Europe
Renewable energies are meant to produce a large share of the future electricity demand. However, the availability of wind and solar power depends on local weather conditions and therefore weather characteristics must be considered when optimizing the future electricity mix. In this article we analyze the impact of the stochastic availability of wind and solar energy on the cost-minimal power plant mix and the related total system costs. To determine optimal conventional, renewable and storage capacities for di fferent shares of renewables, we apply a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model to the European electricity market. The model considers stochastic feed-in structures and full load hours of wind and solar technologies and different correlations between regions and technologies. Key findings include the overestimation of fluctuating renewables and underestimation of total system costs compared to deterministic investment and dispatch models. Furthermore, solar technologies are - relative to wind turbines - underestimated when neglecting negative correlations between wind speeds and solar radiation.
|Date of creation:||09 Jan 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Vogelsanger Str. 321, Alte Wagenfabrik, 50827 Köln|
Phone: ++ 49 (0) 221 277 29 100
Fax: ++ 49 (0) 221 277 29 400
Web page: http://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heide, Dominik & von Bremen, Lueder & Greiner, Martin & Hoffmann, Clemens & Speckmann, Markus & Bofinger, Stefan, 2010. "Seasonal optimal mix of wind and solar power in a future, highly renewable Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2483-2489.
- Neuhoff, Karsten & Ehrenmann, Andreas & Butler, Lucy & Cust, Jim & Hoexter, Harriet & Keats, Kim & Kreczko, Adam & Sinden, Graham, 2008.
"Space and time: Wind in an investment planning model,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1990-2008, July.
- Neuhoff, K. & Ehrenmann, A. & Butler, L. & Cust, J. & Hoexter, H. & Keats, K. & Kreczko,A. & Sinden, G., 2006. "Space and Time: Wind in an Investment Planning Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0620, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- George B. Dantzig, 1955. "Linear Programming under Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(3-4), pages 197-206, 04-07.
- Richter, Jan, 2011. "DIMENSION - A Dispatch and Investment Model for European Electricity Markets," EWI Working Papers 2011-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
- DeCarolis, Joseph F. & Keith, David W., 2006. "The economics of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 395-410, March.
- Möst, Dominik & Keles, Dogan, 2010. "A survey of stochastic modelling approaches for liberalised electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 543-556, December.
- Beenstock, Michael, 1995. "The stochastic economics of windpower," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 27-37, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2012_001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Williams)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.