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Episodic Nonlinearity in Leading Global Currencies

Author

Listed:
  • Serletis, Apostolos

    (University of Calgary)

  • Malliaris, Anastasios

    (Loyola University of Chicago)

  • Hinich, Melvin

    (The University of Texas at Austin)

  • Gogas, Periklis

    (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of International Economic Relations and Development)

Abstract

We perform non-linearity tests using daily data for leading currencies that include the Australian dollar, British pound, Brazilian real, Canadian dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Mexican peso, and the Swiss franc to resolve the issue of whether these currencies are driven by fundamentals or exogenous shocks to the global economy. In particular, we use a new method of testing for linear and nonlinear lead/lag relationships between time series, introduced by Brooks and Hinich (1999), based on the concepts of cross-correlation and cross-bicorrelation. Our evidence points to a relatively rare episodic nonlinearity within and across foreign exchange rates. We also test the validity of specifying ARCH-type error structures for foreign exchange rates. In doing so, we estimate Bollerslevs (1986) general- ized ARCH (GARCH) model and Nelsons (1988) exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model,using a variety of error densities [including the normal, the Student-t distribution, and the Generalized Error Distribution (GED)] and a comprehensive set of diagnostic checks. We apply the Brooks and Hinich (1999) nonlinearity test to the standardized residuals of the optimal GARCH/EGARCH model for each exchange rate series and show that the nonlinearity in the exchange rates is not due to ARCH-type e¤ects. This result has important implications for the interpretation of the recent voluminous literature which attempts to model fi nancial asset returns using this family of models.

Suggested Citation

  • Serletis, Apostolos & Malliaris, Anastasios & Hinich, Melvin & Gogas, Periklis, 2010. "Episodic Nonlinearity in Leading Global Currencies," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 3-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:duthrp:2010_003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "The Role of Current Account Balance in Forecasting the US Equity Premium: Evidence From a Quantile Predictive Regression Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 47-59, February.
    2. Semei Coronado & Omar Rojas & Rafael Romero-Meza & Francisco Venegas-Martinez, 2015. "A study of co-movements between USA and Latin American stock markets: a cross-bicorrelations perspective," Papers 1503.06926, arXiv.org.
    3. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Semei Coronado & Omar Rojas, 2016. "A study of co-movements between oil price, stock index and exchange rate under a cross-bicorrelation perspective: the case of Mexico," Papers 1602.03271, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global nancial markets; Currencies; Episodic nonlinearity; Conditional heteroskedasticity.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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