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Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment

Author

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  • Pajarinen, Mika
  • Rouvinen, Petri

Abstract

Abstract We find that one third of Finnish employment is highly susceptible to computerization in the next decade or two. While this share is large, it is ten percentage points less than the corresponding share in the United States, which reflects cross-country differences in occupational structures. Low wage and low skill occupations appear more threatened. Service jobs are relatively more sheltered than manufacturing jobs. The estimated impacts do not necessarily imply future mass unemployment, since the approach employed does not take into account changes in the task content within occupations or the evolution in the mix of occupations. It also ignores powerful societal forces, such as prevailing regulation and established organizational structures, hindering technological advance. Despite these caveats, our findings suggest major future changes in Finnish employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Pajarinen, Mika & Rouvinen, Petri, 2014. "Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment," ETLA Brief 22, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:rif:briefs:22
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    File URL: http://www.etla.fi/wp-content/uploads/ETLA-Muistio-Brief-22.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Peneder & Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Matthias Firgo & Oliver Fritz & Gerhard Streicher, 2017. "Economic Effects of Digitalisation in Austria," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 90(3), pages 177-192, March.
    2. Claude Paraponaris, 2017. "Plateformes numériques, conception ouverte et emploi," Post-Print halshs-01614430, HAL.
    3. Gunther Tichy, 2016. "Is the Working Society Running Out of Jobs?," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(12), pages 853-871, December.
    4. David, Benjamin, 2017. "Computer technology and probable job destructions in Japan: An evaluation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 77-87.
    5. repec:wfo:monber:y:2018:i:12:p:909-920 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lorenz, Hanno & Stephany, Fabian, 2018. "Back to the future: Changing job profiles in the digital age," Working Papers 13, Agenda Austria.
    7. repec:rif:bbooks:275 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "ELS issues in robotics and steps to consider them. Part 1: Robotics and employment. Consequences of robotics and technological change for the structure and level of employment," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research, number 146501, June.
    9. repec:wfo:monber:y:2018:i:12 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kaivo-oja, Jari & Roth, Steffen, 2015. "The Technological Future of Work and Robotics," EconStor Preprints 118693, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. repec:zbw:zewexp:179119 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:sdo:regaec:v:27:y:2018:i:3_2 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Benjamin David, 2015. "Computer technology and probable job destructions in Japan: an evaluation," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-28, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    14. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Globalization Threatens One Quarter of Finnish Employment," ETLA Brief 46, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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