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Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment


  • Pajarinen, Mika
  • Rouvinen, Petri


Abstract We find that one third of Finnish employment is highly susceptible to computerization in the next decade or two. While this share is large, it is ten percentage points less than the corresponding share in the United States, which reflects cross-country differences in occupational structures. Low wage and low skill occupations appear more threatened. Service jobs are relatively more sheltered than manufacturing jobs. The estimated impacts do not necessarily imply future mass unemployment, since the approach employed does not take into account changes in the task content within occupations or the evolution in the mix of occupations. It also ignores powerful societal forces, such as prevailing regulation and established organizational structures, hindering technological advance. Despite these caveats, our findings suggest major future changes in Finnish employment.

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  • Pajarinen, Mika & Rouvinen, Petri, 2014. "Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment," ETLA Brief 22, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  • Handle: RePEc:rif:briefs:22

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Claude Paraponaris, 2017. "Plateformes numériques, conception ouverte et emploi," Post-Print halshs-01614430, HAL.
    2. Gunther Tichy, 2016. "Geht der Arbeitsgesellschaft die Arbeit aus?," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(12), pages 853-871, December.
    3. David, Benjamin, 2017. "Computer technology and probable job destructions in Japan: An evaluation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 77-87.
    4. Martin Labaj & Materj Vitalos, 2019. "Automation and labor demand in European countries: A task-based approach to wage bill decomposition," Department of Economic Policy Working Paper Series 021, Department of Economic Policy, Faculty of National Economy, University of Economics in Bratislava.
    5. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "ELS issues in robotics and steps to consider them. Part 1: Robotics and employment. Consequences of robotics and technological change for the structure and level of employment," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 146501, February.
    6. Lorenz, Hanno & Stephany, Fabian, 2018. "Back to the future: Changing job profiles in the digital age," Working Papers 13, Agenda Austria.
    7. Na & Na, 2019. "Na," DEM Working Papers 2019/17, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Zoltan Csefalvay, 2019. "What are the policy options? A systematic review of policy responses to the impacts of robotisation and automation on the labour market," JRC Working Papers on Corporate R&D and Innovation 2019-02, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    9. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich & Lehmer, Florian & Matthes, Britta, 2018. "Digitalisierung und die Zukunft der Arbeit: Makroökonomische Auswirkungen auf Beschäftigung, Arbeitslosigkeit und Löhne von morgen," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 179119, February.
    10. Juan Ramón GARCÍA, 2018. "Galicia Ante Reto De La Automatización Del Trabajo," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., vol. 27(3), pages 17-28.
    11. Benjamin David, 2015. "Computer technology and probable job destructions in Japan: an evaluation," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-28, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Michael Peneder & Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Matthias Firgo & Oliver Fritz & Gerhard Streicher, 2017. "Ökonomische Effekte der Digitalisierung in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 90(3), pages 177-192, March.
    13. Michael Böheim & Julia Bock-Schappelwein, 2018. "Politischer Handlungsspielraum zur optimalen Nutzung der Chancen der Digitalisierung für Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigung und Wohlstand. Synthese," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(12), pages 909-920, December.
    14. Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki & Heikkilä, Jussi & Lööf, Hans & Martinsuo, Miia & Mohammadi, Ali & Olhager, Jan & Pajarinen, Mika & Rouvinen, Petri & Tuhkuri, Joonas, . "International Sourcing in Finland and Sweden," ETLA B, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 275, February.
    15. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2019. "Digitalization and the future of work: Macroeconomic consequences," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-024, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. N. N., 2018. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 12/2018," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(12), December.
    17. Kaivo-oja, Jari & Roth, Steffen, 2015. "The Technological Future of Work and Robotics," EconStor Preprints 118693, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Globalization Threatens One Quarter of Finnish Employment," ETLA Brief 46, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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