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Identifying the Most Significant Microbiological Foodborne Hazards to Public Health: A New Risk Ranking Model

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  • Krupnick, Alan

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Taylor, Michael
  • Batz, Michael

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Hoffmann, Sandra

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Tick, Jody
  • Morris, Glenn
  • Sherman, Diane

Abstract

In order to help facilitate a risk-based food safety system, we developed the Foodborne Illness Risk Ranking Model (FIRRM), a decisionmaking tool that quantifies and compares the relative burden to society of 28 foodborne pathogens. FIRRM estimates the annual number of cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities caused by each foodborne pathogen, subsequently estimates the economic costs and QALY losses of these illnesses, and, lastly, attributes these pathogen-specific illnesses and costs to categories of food vehicles, based on outbreak data and expert judgment. The model ranks pathogen-food combinations according to five measures of societal burden. FIRRM incorporates probabilistic uncertainty within a Monte Carlo simulation framework and produces confidence intervals and statistics for all outputs. Gaps in data, most importantly in regards to food attribution and the statistical uncertainty of incidence estimates, currently limit the utility of the model. Once we address these and other problems, however, FIRRM will be a robust and useful decisionmaking tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Krupnick, Alan & Taylor, Michael & Batz, Michael & Hoffmann, Sandra & Tick, Jody & Morris, Glenn & Sherman, Diane, 2004. "Identifying the Most Significant Microbiological Foodborne Hazards to Public Health: A New Risk Ranking Model," RFF Working Paper Series dp-frsc-dp-01, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-frsc-dp-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anna Alberini & Maureen Cropper & Alan Krupnick & Nathalie Simon, 2006. "Willingness to pay for mortality risk reductions: Does latency matter?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 231-245, May.
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    7. Krupnick, Alan & Alberini, Anna & Cropper, Maureen & Simon, Nathalie & O'Brien, Bernie & Goeree, Ron & Heintzelman, Martin, 2002. "Age, Health and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Residents," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 161-186, March.
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    9. Alberini, Anna & Cropper, Maureen & Krupnick, Alan & Simon, Nathalie B., 2004. "Willingness To Pay For Mortality Risk Reductions: Does Latency Matter?," National Center for Environmental Economics-NCEE Working Papers 280829, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Juliana Martins Ruzante & Valerie J. Davidson & Julie Caswell & Aamir Fazil & John A. L. Cranfield & Spencer J. Henson & Sven M. Anders & Claudia Schmidt & Jeffrey M. Farber, 2010. "A Multifactorial Risk Prioritization Framework for Foodborne Pathogens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 724-742, May.
    2. Hamid Mohtadi & Antu Panini Murshid, 2009. "Risk Analysis of Chemical, Biological, or Radionuclear Threats: Implications for Food Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(9), pages 1317-1335, September.
    3. Pitter, János G. & Jóźwiak, Ákos & Martos, Éva & Kaló, Zoltán & Vokó, Zoltán, 2015. "Next steps to evidence-based food safety risk analysis: opportunities for health technology assessment methodology implementation," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 117(3), pages 1-7, December.
    4. Marie‐Josée J. Mangen & Michael B. Batz & Annemarie Käsbohrer & Tine Hald & J. Glenn Morris & Michael Taylor & Arie H. Havelaar, 2010. "Integrated Approaches for the Public Health Prioritization of Foodborne and Zoonotic Pathogens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 782-797, May.
    5. Julie A. Caswell, 2008. "Expanding the Focus of Cost-Benefit Analysis for Food Safety: A Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Approach," Working Papers 2008-8, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
    6. Taylor, Michael & Batz, Michael & Tauxe, Robert & Morris, Glenn & Doyle, Michael & Painter, John & Singh, Ruby & Lo Fo Wong, Danilo, 2004. "Linking Illness to Food: Summary of a Workshop on Food Attribution," RFF Working Paper Series dp-fsrc-dp-02, Resources for the Future.

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