IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v29y2009i9p1317-1335.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Analysis of Chemical, Biological, or Radionuclear Threats: Implications for Food Security

Author

Listed:
  • Hamid Mohtadi
  • Antu Panini Murshid

Abstract

If the food sector is attacked, the likely agents will be chemical, biological, or radionuclear (CBRN). We compiled a database of international terrorist/criminal activity involving such agents. Based on these data, we calculate the likelihood of a catastrophic event using extreme value methods. At the present, the probability of an event leading to 5,000 casualties (fatalities and injuries) is between 0.1 and 0.3. However, pronounced, nonstationary patterns within our data suggest that the “reoccurrence period” for such attacks is decreasing every year. Similarly, disturbing trends are evident in a broader data set, which is nonspecific as to the methods or means of attack. While at the present the likelihood of CBRN events is quite low, given an attack, the probability that it involves CBRN agents increases with the number of casualties. This is consistent with evidence of “heavy tails” in the distribution of casualties arising from CBRN events.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamid Mohtadi & Antu Panini Murshid, 2009. "Risk Analysis of Chemical, Biological, or Radionuclear Threats: Implications for Food Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(9), pages 1317-1335, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:9:p:1317-1335
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01260.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01260.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01260.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth T. Bogen & Edwin D. Jones, 2006. "Risks of Mortality and Morbidity from Worldwide Terrorism: 1968–2004," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 45-59, February.
    2. Neil Johnson & Michael Spagat & Jorge A. Restrepo & Nicolás Suárez, 2005. "From old wars to new wars and global terrorism," Documentos de Economía 2745, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    3. Krupnick, Alan & Taylor, Michael & Batz, Michael & Hoffmann, Sandra & Tick, Jody & Morris, Glenn & Sherman, Diane, 2004. "Identifying the Most Significant Microbiological Foodborne Hazards to Public Health: A New Risk Ranking Model," RFF Working Paper Series dp-frsc-dp-01, Resources for the Future.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hamid Mohtadi, 2017. "Risk‐Mitigating Policies and Adversarial Behavior: Case of Backlash," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 459-470, March.
    2. Arce, Daniel G., 2015. "WikiLeaks and the risks to critical foreign dependencies," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 3-11.
    3. Yanling Chang & Alan Erera & Chelsea White, 2015. "A leader–follower partially observed, multiobjective Markov game," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 235(1), pages 103-128, December.
    4. Mohamed Ayadi & Mohamed Salah Matoussi, 2007. "The Impact of Higher Water Costs on the Export of Tunisian Dates and Citrus," Working Papers 718, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jan 2007.
    5. Moran Bodas & Morel Ragoler & Yossi Rabby & Esther Krasner, 2021. "The Effect of Risk Communication on Public Behavior to Non-Conventional Terrorism—Randomized Control Trial," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-20, December.
    6. Shuying Li & Jun Zhuang & Shifei Shen, 2017. "Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1287-1297, July.
    7. Gilberto Montibeller & L. Alberto Franco & Ashley Carreras, 2020. "A Risk Analysis Framework for Prioritizing and Managing Biosecurity Threats," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(11), pages 2462-2477, November.
    8. Hamid Mohtadi & Swati Agiwal, 2012. "Optimal Security Investments and Extreme Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(8), pages 1309-1325, August.
    9. Zhang, Jing & Zhuang, Jun, 2019. "Modeling a multi-target attacker-defender game with multiple attack types," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 465-475.
    10. Hamid Mohtadi & Bryan S. Weber, 2021. "Catastrophe And Rational Policy: Case Of National Security," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 140-161, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hamid Mohtadi & Swati Agiwal, 2012. "Optimal Security Investments and Extreme Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(8), pages 1309-1325, August.
    2. Juliana Martins Ruzante & Valerie J. Davidson & Julie Caswell & Aamir Fazil & John A. L. Cranfield & Spencer J. Henson & Sven M. Anders & Claudia Schmidt & Jeffrey M. Farber, 2010. "A Multifactorial Risk Prioritization Framework for Foodborne Pathogens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 724-742, May.
    3. Hamid Mohtadi & Antu Panini Murshid, 2009. "Risk of catastrophic terrorism: an extreme value approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 537-559.
    4. Mohamed Ayadi & Mohamed Salah Matoussi, 2007. "The Impact of Higher Water Costs on the Export of Tunisian Dates and Citrus," Working Papers 718, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jan 2007.
    5. Taylor, Michael & Batz, Michael & Tauxe, Robert & Morris, Glenn & Doyle, Michael & Painter, John & Singh, Ruby & Lo Fo Wong, Danilo, 2004. "Linking Illness to Food: Summary of a Workshop on Food Attribution," RFF Working Paper Series dp-fsrc-dp-02, Resources for the Future.
    6. Aaron Clauset & Maxwell Young & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2007. "On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(1), pages 58-87, February.
    7. Alvarez-Ramirez, J. & Ibarra-Valdez, C. & Rodriguez, E. & Urrea, R., 2007. "Fractality and time correlation in contemporary war," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1039-1049.
    8. Aaron Clauset & Frederik W. Wiegel, 2010. "A Generalized Aggregation-Disintegration Model for the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Attacks," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(1), pages 179-197, February.
    9. Pitter, János G. & Jóźwiak, Ákos & Martos, Éva & Kaló, Zoltán & Vokó, Zoltán, 2015. "Next steps to evidence-based food safety risk analysis: opportunities for health technology assessment methodology implementation," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 117(3), pages 1-7, December.
    10. Walter W. Piegorsch & Susan L. Cutter & Frank Hardisty, 2007. "Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(6), pages 1411-1425, December.
    11. Julie A. Caswell, 2008. "Expanding the Focus of Cost-Benefit Analysis for Food Safety: A Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Approach," Working Papers 2008-8, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
    12. Alvarez-Ramirez Jose & Rodriguez Eduardo & Tyrtania Leonardo & Urrea-Garcìa Galo R, 2010. "Regime-Transitions in the 2003-2010 Iraq War: An Approach Based on Correlations of Daily Fatalities," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-41, December.
    13. Hamid Mohtadi, 2017. "Risk‐Mitigating Policies and Adversarial Behavior: Case of Backlash," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 459-470, March.
    14. Michael Spagat & Neil F Johnson & Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Fundamental patterns and predictions of event size distributions in modern wars and terrorist campaigns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-13, October.
    15. Marie‐Josée J. Mangen & Michael B. Batz & Annemarie Käsbohrer & Tine Hald & J. Glenn Morris & Michael Taylor & Arie H. Havelaar, 2010. "Integrated Approaches for the Public Health Prioritization of Foodborne and Zoonotic Pathogens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 782-797, May.
    16. Hamid Mohtadi & Bryan S. Weber, 2021. "Catastrophe And Rational Policy: Case Of National Security," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 140-161, January.
    17. Marcovina Marco & Pellero Bruno, 2015. "A Mathematical Analysis of Domestic Terrorist Activity in the Years of Lead in Italy," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 351-389, August.
    18. Shuying Li & Jun Zhuang & Shifei Shen, 2017. "Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1287-1297, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:9:p:1317-1335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.