The risk of catastrophic terrorism: an extreme value approach
This paper models the stochastic behavior of large-scale terrorism using extreme value methods. We utilize a unique dataset composed of roughly 26,000 observations. These data provide a rich description of domestic and international terrorism between 1968 and 2006. Currently, a credible worst-case scenario would involve losses of about 5000 to 10,000 lives. Also, the return time for events of such magnitude is shortening every year. Today, the primary threat is from conventional weapons, rather than from chemical, biological and/or radionuclear weapons. However, pronounced tails in the distribution of these incidents suggest that this threat cannot be dismissed.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
- Neil Johnson & Michael Spagat & Jorge A. Restrepo & Nicolás Suárez, 2005. "From old wars to new wars and global terrorism," DOCUMENTOS DE ECONOMÍA 002745, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
- Kunreuther, Howard & Meszaros, Jacqueline & Hogarth, Robin M. & Spranca, Mark, 1995. "Ambiguity and underwriter decision processes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 337-352, May.
- Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1996. "Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment in Spain and Greece," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 331-352.
- Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004.
"The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1007-1032, July.
- S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess & Athanasios Orphanides, 2004. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism," CESifo Working Paper Series 1151, CESifo Group Munich.
- Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? A Time-Series Investigation," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1823, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)