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Ex Post Costs and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) Prices under the Renewable Fuel Standard

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  • Lade, Gabriel E.
  • Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia
  • Smith, Aaron

Abstract

We critically review the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) assessment of the costs and benefits of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) as summarized in its regulatory impact analysis (RIA). We focus particularly on EPA’s methods used to calculate the costs of the policy on the US fuel market. We compare EPA’s ex ante cost and benefit estimates to measures of ex post costs implied by the price of compliance credits under the policy. Overall, we find that the agency’s assessment was inadequate. In spite of, or perhaps because of, the detailed and complex analysis underlying the RIA, EPA overlooked several fundamental factors. We conclude by recommending a simplification of the analysis used in RIAs, as well as the use of “stress tests” in RIAs to ensure that programs like the RFS2 are designed in ways that can manage high compliance cost scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Lade, Gabriel E. & Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Smith, Aaron, 2015. "Ex Post Costs and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) Prices under the Renewable Fuel Standard," RFF Working Paper Series dp-15-22, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-15-22
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    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-15-22.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Bielen, David A. & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2018. "Who did the ethanol tax credit benefit? An event analysis of subsidy incidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Yeh, Sonia & Witcover, Julie & Lade, Gabriel E. & Sperling, Daniel, 2016. "A review of low carbon fuel policies: Principles, program status and future directions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 220-234.
    3. Mason, Charles F. & Wilmot, Neil A., 2016. "Price discontinuities in the market for RINs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 79-97.
    4. Gabriel E Lade & C-Y Cynthia Lin Lawell & Aaron Smith, 2018. "Designing Climate Policy: Lessons from the Renewable Fuel Standard and the Blend Wall," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(2), pages 585-599.
    5. Aui, Alvina & Wang, Yu, 2022. "Post-RFS supports for cellulosic ethanol: Evaluation of economic and environmental impacts of alternative policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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    Keywords

    Renewable Fuel Standard; biofuels; compliance credits; renewable identification number; RIN prices; GHG emissions; regulatory impact analysis;
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