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Waxing Jobs and Waning Industries

Author

Listed:
  • Yongseok Shin

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

  • Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

  • Sangmin Aum

    (Washington University in St.Louis)

Abstract

We study the changes in employment across industries and occupations over business cycles. For a detailed industry-occupation classification, we use annual data (Current Population Survey from 1980 to 2000 and American Community Survey from 2001 to 2014). We find a striking novel pattern: Employment losses during recession years are concentrated in a small number of industries, but employment gains during expansion years are driven by a set of occupations across all industries. This asymmetric pattern is clearer in the ACS years, because of the larger sample size. We use a version of the model developed in Lee and Shin (2016) that incorporates costs of switching occupations and/or industries. The estimated model will help us answer two important questions. 1. Why are expansions (driven by occupations) slow and persistent, but contractions (driven by sectors) sudden and shorter-lived? 2. Why are the employment recoveries from certain recessions slower than others?

Suggested Citation

  • Yongseok Shin & Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee & Sangmin Aum, 2017. "Waxing Jobs and Waning Industries," 2017 Meeting Papers 1618, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:1618
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cortes, Guido Matias & Jaimovich, Nir & Nekarda, Christopher J. & Siu, Henry E., 2020. "The dynamics of disappearing routine jobs: A flows approach," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Shim, Myungkyu & Yang, Hee-Seung, 2016. "New stylized facts on occupational employment and their implications: Evidence from consistent employment data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 402-415.
    3. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    4. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2015. "Labor-Market Polarization over the Business Cycle," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 371-413.
    5. Lee, Tim & Shin, Yongseok, 2017. "Horizonatal and Vertical Polarization: Task-Specific Technological Change in a Multi-Sector Economy," TSE Working Papers 17-800, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
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