IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed013/1258.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time-Varying Risk Premia and Capital Flows to Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ina Simonovska

    (University of California, Davis)

  • Espen Henriksen

    (UC Davis)

Abstract

One of the most well-known puzzles in international economics is the Lucas paradox: Why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries? Given the low capital-output ratios in developing countries, the difference in unconditional expected returns from investing there rather than in developed markets is too high to compensate for risk alone. Hence, the Lucas paradox shares key features with well-known asset-pricing puzzles. In this paper, we study whether pricing kernels, as in Bansal and Yaron (2004), that can rationalize the equity-premium puzzle can also account for the Lucas paradox. Bansal and Yaron (2004) show that time-varying uncertainty associated with long-run trend growth shapes asset valuations. In addition, Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) find that shocks to trend growth are the primary source of fluctuations in emerging markets. Finally, Borri and Verdelhan (2012) argue that there exists a strong positive correlation between the macroeconomic conditions in developing and developed countries. The last two facts suggest that time-varying risk premia are potentially a key ingredient necessary to account for the lack of capital flows to developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ina Simonovska & Espen Henriksen, 2013. "Time-Varying Risk Premia and Capital Flows to Developing Countries," 2013 Meeting Papers 1258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:1258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2013/paper_1258.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2011. "Risks for the Long Run and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 153-181.
    2. Adrien Verdelhan & Nicola Borri, 2010. "Sovereign Risk Premia," 2010 Meeting Papers 1122, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Tuesta, Vicente, 2011. "Cointegrated TFP processes and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 156-171, March.
    4. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi & Glenn MacDonald, 2004. "Investor Protection, Optimal Incentives, and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(3), pages 1131-1175.
    6. Gertler, Mark & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "North-South lending and endogenous domestic capital market inefficiencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 245-266, October.
    7. Emi Nakamura & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Jón Steinsson, 2017. "Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-39, January.
    8. Mariano M. Croce & Marin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2006. "Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Duration fo Risky Assets," 2006 Meeting Papers 628, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Amir Yaron, 2009. "An Empirical Evaluation of the Long-Run Risks Model for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 15504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joel M. David & Espen Henriksen & Ina Simonovska, 2014. "The Risky Capital of Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 20769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    3. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2014. "Assessing International Efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 523-584, Elsevier.
    4. George M. Constantinides & Anisha Ghosh, 2011. "Asset Pricing Tests with Long-run Risks in Consumption Growth," Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 96-136.
    5. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Rey, Hélène & Winant, Pablo, 2020. "Financial integration and growth in a risky world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-21.
    6. Hakon Tretvoll, 2018. "Real Exchange Variability in a Two-Country Business Cycle Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 123-145, January.
    7. Robert Barro & Tao Jin, 2021. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 1-25, January.
    8. Robert Ready & Mariano Croce & Federico Gavazzoni & Riccardo Colacito, 2016. "Currency Risk Factors in a Recursive Multi-Country Economy," 2016 Meeting Papers 297, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Dmitriev, Alexandre, 2017. "Composite habits and international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-34.
    10. Colacito, Riccardo & Croce, Mariano Massimiliano & Ho, Steven & Howard, Philip, 2018. "BKK the EZ Way. International Long-Run Growth News and Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 12783, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Hakon Tretvoll, 2012. "Real exchange rate variability in a two country business cycle model," 2012 Meeting Papers 911, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Massimiliano Croce, Mariano, 2014. "Long-run productivity risk: A new hope for production-based asset pricing?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 13-31.
    13. Emi Nakamura & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Jón Steinsson, 2017. "Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-39, January.
    14. Mariano M. Croce, 2006. "Welfare Costs, Long Run Consumption Risk, and a Production Economy," 2006 Meeting Papers 582, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Robert Barro & Tao Jin, 2021. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 1-25, January.
    16. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    17. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Hassan, Tarek A. & Mertens, Thomas M. & Zhang, Tony, 2016. "Not so disconnected: Exchange rates and the capital stock," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 43-57.
    19. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-run risks and financial markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 283-300.
    20. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2010. "The Short and Long Run Benefits of Financial Integration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 527-531, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed013:1258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.