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Financial Globalization, Financial Crisis, and the External Capital Structure of Emerging Markets

Author

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  • Katherine A. Smith

    (U.S. Naval Academy)

  • Enrique G. Mendoza

    (University of Maryland and NBER)

Abstract

This paper argues that credit frictions and asset trading costs signigcantly increase the probability of a Sudden Stop in the early stages of financial globalization, and that this in turn, significantly alters the long-run external capital structure of emerging market economies. Upon opening the capital account, domestic agents have an incentive to accumulate debt and sell domestic equity in order to share risk with the rest of the world. Due to a lower cost of capital, equity prices rise allowing agents to accumulate a relatively large amount of debt without being constrained in the near term. As domestic agents accumulate debt and sell equity to re-balance their portfolio, however, adjustment costs force equity prices to subsequently fall. With a lower value of equity, agents within the emerging economy face a greater risk of hitting their credit constraint, triggering a debt deflation crisis. In the long run, the probability of a Sudden Stop is smaller as agents accumulate pre-cautionary savings to avoid the Sudden Stop. However, the adjustment of the external capital structure is permanent. Calibrating the model to Mexico, we solve numerically for the transitional dynamics after nancial globalization and show that the model can match the dynamics observed in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Katherine A. Smith & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2011. "Financial Globalization, Financial Crisis, and the External Capital Structure of Emerging Markets," 2011 Meeting Papers 235, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    2. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 194-209.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 473-500.
    4. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 82-114.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 191-214.
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    7. Rodolfo Martell & René M. Stulz, 2003. "Equity-Market Liberalizations as Country IPO's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 97-101.
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    11. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 797-818.
    12. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 371-399.
    13. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 82-114.
    14. Rodolfo Martell & René M. Stulz, 2003. "Equity-Market Liberalizations as Country IPO's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 97-101.
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    17. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, April.
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