IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/19072.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Globalization, Financial Crises, and the External Portfolio Structure of Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique G. Mendoza
  • Katherine A. Smith

Abstract

We study the short- and long-run effects of financial integration in emerging economies using a two-sector model with a collateral constraint on external debt and trading costs incurred by foreign investors. The probability of a financial crisis displays overshooting: It rises sharply initially and then falls sharply but remains positive in the long run. While equity holdings fall permanently, bond holdings initially fall but rise after the crisis probability peaks. Conversely, asset returns and asset prices first rise and then fall. These results are in line with the post-globalization dynamics observed in emerging markets, and the higher frequency of crises they displayed. Without financial frictions, the model yields a negligible fall in equity and a large increase in debt. The results also depend critically on supply-side effects of financial frictions affecting the price of nontradables and dividends from nontradables producers, and on strong precautionary savings incentives induced by the risk of financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2013. "Financial Globalization, Financial Crises, and the External Portfolio Structure of Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 19072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19072
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19072.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    5. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    6. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    7. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September.
    8. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, April.
    9. Rodolfo Martell & René M. Stulz, 2003. "Equity-Market Liberalizations as Country IPO's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 97-101, May.
    10. Sunil Sharma & Woon Gyu Choi & Maria Strömqvist, 2007. "Capital Flows, Financial Integration, and International Reserve Holdings; The Recent Experience of Emerging Markets and Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/151, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2016. "Macroprudential Policy: Promise and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 22868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19072. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.