IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qld/uqeemg/14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Potential Impacts of Subprime Carbon on Australia’s Impending Carbon Market

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Hamshere

    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

  • Liam Wagner

    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

Abstract

This paper examines the potential impacts of subprime carbon credits on the impending Australian carbon market. Subprime carbon could potentially be created in carbon offset markets that lack adequate regulation, as projects face risks that can overstate emissions abatement. Recent research suggests that subprime carbon credits will likely cause significant price instability in carbon markets, with some authors drawing parallels to the US market for mortgage backed securities during the subprime mortgage crisis (Chan, 2009). To assess the impacts of subprime carbon credits on the impending Australian carbon market, carbon price fundamentals are examined using a marginal abatement cost curve for the year 2020. The 2020 Australian marginal abatement cost curve is derived using a bottom-up model of the Australian electricity sector, as well as findings by the (DCC, 2009) and (McKinsey, 2008). Impacts are evaluated under several scenarios, which consider different trading scheme limits on the use of offsets; different proportions of offset credits that are subprime; and different emissions reduction targets. The results suggest that subprime carbon credits will always result in overall emissions reductions to be overstated, while sometimes increasing price volatility in the carbon market, depending on the steepness of the marginal abatement cost curve, the proportion of offset credits that are subprime, and the trading schemes limits on the use of offsets. We conclude that carbon markets could benefit significantly from a carbon offsets regulator, which would ensure the environmental and financial integrity of offset credits.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Hamshere & Liam Wagner, 2012. "Potential Impacts of Subprime Carbon on Australia’s Impending Carbon Market," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 14, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeemg:14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/eemg/docs/workingpapers/14.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lambert Schneider, 2009. "Assessing the additionality of CDM projects: practical experiences and lessons learned," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 242-254, May.
    2. Springer, Urs, 2003. "The market for tradable GHG permits under the Kyoto Protocol: a survey of model studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 527-551, September.
    3. Flavio Menezes & John Quiggin & Liam Wagner, 2009. "Grandfathering and Greenhouse: The Role of Compensation and Adjustment Assistance in the Introduction of a Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme for Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 28(2), pages 82-92, June.
    4. Karan Capoor & Philippe Ambrosi, "undated". "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2009," World Bank Publications - Reports 13402, The World Bank Group.
    5. Paul Simshauser & Phillip Wild, 2009. "The Western Australian Power Dilemma," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 342-369, December.
    6. Lambie, Neil Ross, 2010. "Understanding the effect of an emissions trading scheme on electricity generator investment and retirement behaviour: the proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(2), pages 1-15.
    7. Eric Tymoigne, 2009. "Securitization, Deregulation, Economic Stability, and Financial Crisis, Part II--Deregulation, the Financial Crisis, and Policy Implications," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_573_2, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Liam Wagner & John Foster, 2011. "Is There an Optimal Entry Time for Carbon Capture and Storage? A Case Study for Australia's National Electricity Market," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 07, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. Millard-Ball, Adam & Ortolano, Leonard, 2010. "Constructing carbon offsets: The obstacles to quantifying emission reductions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 533-546, January.
    10. Shukla, P. R., 1995. "Greenhouse gas models and abatement costs for developing nations : A critical assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 677-687, August.
    11. Blyth, William & Bunn, Derek & Kettunen, Janne & Wilson, Tom, 2009. "Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5192-5207, December.
    12. Karan Capoor & Philippe Ambrosi, "undated". "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2009," World Bank Publications - Reports 13403, The World Bank Group.
    13. John C. Hull, 2009. "The Credit Crunch of 2007: What Went Wrong? Why? What Lessons Can be Learned?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Philipp Hartmann & George G Kaufman (ed.), The First Credit Market Turmoil Of The 21st Century Implications for Public Policy, chapter 11, pages 161-174, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Michaelowa, Axel & Jotzo, Frank, 2005. "Transaction costs, institutional rigidities and the size of the clean development mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 511-523, March.
    15. Jacqueline M. Drew & Michael E. Drew, 2010. "Establishing additionality: fraud vulnerabilities in the clean development mechanism," Accounting Research Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 23(3), pages 243-253, November.
    16. Adam G. Bumpus & Diana M. Liverman, 2008. "Accumulation by Decarbonization and the Governance of Carbon Offsets," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 84(2), pages 127-155, April.
    17. Michael Grubb & Tim Laing & Thomas Counsell & Catherine Willan, 2011. "Global carbon mechanisms: lessons and implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 539-573, February.
    18. Emma Lund, 2010. "Dysfunctional delegation: why the design of the CDM's supervisory system is fundamentally flawed," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 277-288, May.
    19. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    20. Emma Paulsson, 2009. "A review of the CDM literature: from fine-tuning to critical scrutiny?," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 63-80, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christoph Böhringer & Thomas Rutherford & Marco Springmann, 2015. "Clean-Development Investments: An Incentive-Compatible CGE Modelling Framework," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 60(4), pages 633-651, April.
    2. Bohringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Springmannc, Marco, 2013. "Clean-development investments : an incentive-compatible CGE modeling framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6720, The World Bank.
    3. Stua, Michele, 2013. "Evidence of the clean development mechanism impact on the Chinese electric power system's low-carbon transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1309-1319.
    4. Suzi Kerr & Adam Millard-Ball, 2012. "Cooperation To Reduce Developing Country Emissions," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 1-30.
    5. Misato Sato & Marta Ciszawska & Timothy Laing, 2016. "Demand for offsetting and insetting in the EU Emissions Trading System," GRI Working Papers 237, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    6. Mori-Clement, Yadira, 2019. "Impacts of CDM projects on sustainable development: Improving living standards across Brazilian municipalities?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 222-236.
    7. Paul J. Burke, 2016. "Undermined by Adverse Selection: Australia's Direct Action Abatement Subsidies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(3), pages 216-229, September.
    8. Rachid Boutti & El Amri Adil & Florence Rodhain, 2019. "Multivariate Analysis of a Time Series EU ETS: Methods and Applications in Carbon Finance," Post-Print hal-03676358, HAL.
    9. Crossland, Jarrod & Li, Bin & Roca, Eduardo, 2013. "Is the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) informationally efficient? Evidence from momentum-based trading strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 10-23.
    10. repec:zbw:hohpro:354 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ji-Won Park & Chae Un Kim & Walter Isard, 2011. "Permit Allocation in Emissions Trading using the Boltzmann Distribution," Papers 1108.2305, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2012.
    12. Nicholas Tatrallyay & Martin Stadelmann, 2013. "Climate change mitigation and international finance: the effectiveness of the Clean Development Mechanism and the Global Environment Facility in India and Brazil," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(7), pages 903-919, October.
    13. Mark Purdon, 2010. "The clean development mechanism and community forests in Sub-Saharan Africa: reconsidering Kyoto’s “moral position” on biocarbon sinks in the carbon market," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 12(6), pages 1025-1050, December.
    14. repec:old:wpaper:354 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jinshan Zhu, 2017. "Assessing China’s price review policy on Clean Development Mechanism projects," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 285-316, April.
    16. Ying Zhang & Yingli Huang, 2023. "Killing Two Birds with One Stone or Missing One of Them? The Synergistic Governance Effect of China’s Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme on Pollution Control and Carbon Emission Reduction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-25, June.
    17. Claudia Kettner-Marx & Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig & Angela Köppl, 2012. "The EU Emission Trading Scheme. National Allocation Patterns and Trading Flows," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 44139, July.
    18. Jun Li & Michel Colombier, 2011. "Economic instruments for mitigating carbon emissions: scaling up carbon finance in China’s buildings sector," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 567-591, August.
    19. Watts, David & Albornoz, Constanza & Watson, Andrea, 2015. "Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) after the first commitment period: Assessment of the world׳s portfolio and the role of Latin America," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1176-1189.
    20. Hayashi, Daisuke & Huenteler, Joern & Lewis, Joanna I., 2018. "Gone with the wind: A learning curve analysis of China's wind power industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 38-51.
    21. Pistorius, Till & Schaich, Harald & Winkel, Georg & Plieninger, Tobias & Bieling, Claudia & Konold, Werner & Volz, Karl-Reinhard, 2012. "Lessons for REDDplus: A comparative analysis of the German discourse on forest functions and the global ecosystem services debate," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 4-12.
    22. De Cian, Enrica & Tavoni, Massimo, 2012. "Do technology externalities justify restrictions on emission permit trading?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 624-646.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon Offsets; Marginal Abatement Cost; Carbon Market Regulation; Subprime Carbon;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qld:uqeemg:14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SOE IT (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eemuqau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.