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Fiscal Regime Changes and the Sustainability of Fiscal Imbalance in South Africa: A Smooth Transition Error-Correction Approach

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  • Samuel S Jibao

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Niek Schoeman

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Ruthira Naraidoo

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

In addition to the conventional linear cointegration test, this paper tests the asymmetry relationship between revenue and expenditure i.e. making a distinction between the adjustment of positive (budget surplus) and negative (budget deficit) deviations from equilibrium using quarterly data on South Africa. The paper reveals that government authorities in South Africa are more likely to react faster when the budget is in deficit than when in surplus and that the stabilisation measures by government are fairly neutral at low deficit levels, that is, at quarterly deficit levels of 4% of GDP and below. We conclude that the attempt to achieve fiscal sustainability via a reduction in expenditure on sectors conducive to economic growth might be prone to social and politically shocks which could render such fiscal policy unsustainable. In South Africa the main fiscal challenge, therefore, is to find ways through which the recent gains in fiscal solvency can be consolidated. The increasing tension amongst local communities complaining about poor service delivery by the government could be a recipe for fiscal unsustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel S Jibao & Niek Schoeman & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2010. "Fiscal Regime Changes and the Sustainability of Fiscal Imbalance in South Africa: A Smooth Transition Error-Correction Approach," Working Papers 201023, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201023
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    Cited by:

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    2. Olusola Oyeleke & Monica Orisadare, 2018. "Relative Importance of Public Debts and Money Growth on Inflation in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(7), pages 1-99, July.
    3. A. Phiri, 2019. "Asymmetries in the revenue–expenditure nexus: new evidence from South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1515-1547, May.
    4. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2015. "Debt Sustainability and Financial Crises in South Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 224-233, January.
    5. Kambale Kavase & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Are fiscal budgets sustainable in South Africa? Evidence from provincial level data," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(2), pages 415-423, April.
    6. Owolabi A. Usman & Dauda Gbolagade Adebisi, 2017. "A Structural Break Analysis of Fiscal Deficit Process in Nigeria," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 341-352, December.
    7. William Nganga & Julien Chevallier & Simon Ndiritu, 2018. "Regime changes and fiscal sustainability in Kenya with comparative nonlinear Granger causalities across East-African countries," Working Papers halshs-01941226, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Smooth transition error correction model; Nonlinearity; Government intertemporal budget constraint; Fiscal sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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