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Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices

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  • Armstrong, J. Scott

Abstract

Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical studies selected from Journal of Consumer Research. A total of 1,736 predictions were obtained from 16 academics, 12 practitioners, and 43 high school students: The practitioners were correct on 58.2 percent of the hypotheses, the students on 56.6 percent, and the academics on 51.3 percent. No group performed better than chance.

Suggested Citation

  • Armstrong, J. Scott, 1991. "Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices," MPRA Paper 81687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:81687
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Oleksandr Dorokhov & Liudmyla Dorokhova & Milica Delibasic & Justas Streimikis, 2017. "Consumer Behavior Modeling - Fuzzy Logic Model for Air Purifiers Choosing," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 13(4), pages 61-77.
    2. de Villiers, Rouxelle, 2015. "Consumer brand enmeshment: Typography and complexity modeling of consumer brand engagement and brand loyalty enactments," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(9), pages 1953-1963.
    3. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2012. "Natural Learning in Higher Education," MPRA Paper 37648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Flostrand, Andrew, 2017. "Finding the future: Crowdsourcing versus the Delphi technique," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 229-236.
    5. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2003. "Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 69-84, January.
    6. Małgorzata Łatuszyńska & Fatimah Furaiji & Agata Wawrzyniak, 2012. "An Empirical Study of the Factors Influencing Consumer Behaviour in the Electric Appliances Market," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 6(3), September.
    7. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Quality Control Versus Innovation in Research on Marketing," General Economics and Teaching 0502050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Debra Jones Ringold, 2016. "Assumptions about Consumers, Producers, and Regulators: What They Tell Us about Ourselves," Journal of the Association for Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(3), pages 341-354.
    9. Ozer, Muammer, 2007. "Reducing the demand uncertainties at the fuzzy-front-end of developing new online services," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1372-1387, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer behavior; marketing;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • M3 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising

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