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Granger Causality and the Factors underlying the Role of Younger Generations in Economic, Social and Political Changes in Arab Countries

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  • Driouchi, Ahmed
  • Harkat, Tahar

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines the causality between social, technological, and political variables with macroeconomic variables in 19 Arab countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Palestine, and Yemen. It uses the Granger causality test to determine causal relationships using data between years 1962 and 2015. Empirical findings reveal unique causality profile for each of the Arab countries. Results also suggest the most important variables in the determination of the economic growth in Arab economies, separately. Variables related to the demography of the new generation, ICTs and use of social media appear to be playing important causal roles, in the sense of Granger tests. This implies that economic, future social and political decisions need to account for these findings and that policies need to be geared towards for further inclusion of the aspirations and expectations of the youth.

Suggested Citation

  • Driouchi, Ahmed & Harkat, Tahar, 2017. "Granger Causality and the Factors underlying the Role of Younger Generations in Economic, Social and Political Changes in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 77218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:77218
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77218/1/MPRA_paper_77218.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rami Hodrab & Mansoor Maitah & Smutka Luboš, 2016. "The Effect of Information and Communication Technology on Economic Growth: Arab World Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 765-775.
    2. Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane & Rault, Christophe, 2013. "Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 261-269.
    3. Borlea Sorin Nicolae & Puscas Adriana & Mare Codruta & Achim Monica Violeta, 2016. "Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth. Evidence for Developing Countries," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, De Gruyter Open, vol. 26(2), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane & Rault, Christophe, 2013. "Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 261-269.
    5. Harkat, Tahar & Driouchi, Ahmed & Achehboune, Amale, 2016. "Time Series Analysis & Choices for General and Vocational Education in Arab Economies," MPRA Paper 74770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Driouchi, Ahmed, 2014. "School Attainment and Knowledge in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 53773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane & Rault, Christophe, 2013. "Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 261-269.
    8. Mete Feridun, 2005. "Investigating the Economic Impact of Immigration on the Host Country: The Case of Norway," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(4), pages 350-362.
    9. Nancy Devlin & Paul Hansen, 2001. "Health care spending and economic output: Granger causality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 561-564.
    10. Padamja Khandelwal & Agustin Roitman, 2013. "The Economics of Political Transitions; Implications for the Arab Spring," IMF Working Papers 13/69, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Harkat, Tahar & Driouchi, Ahmed & Achehboune, Amale, 2016. "Generational Gap and Youth in Arab countries," MPRA Paper 75834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Driouchi, Ahmed, 2014. "Unemployment Persistence & Risks of Skill Obsolescence in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 53793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Granger Causality and the Factors underlying the Role of Younger Generations in Economic, Social and Political Changes in Arab Countries
      by pmakdissi in NEP-ARA blog on 2017-03-23 03:09:08

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    Cited by:

    1. Harkat, Tahar & Driouchi, Ahmed, 2018. "Understanding Youth in Arab Countries:," MPRA Paper 83843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Harkat, Tahar & Driouchi, Ahmed, 2018. "فهم الشباب في البلدان العربية
      [Understanding Youth in Arab Countries]
      ," MPRA Paper 84184, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keywords: Granger Causality; Arab Countries; Macroeconomic Variables; Social Variables; Technological Variables; Political Variables.;

    JEL classification:

    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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