IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/69997.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Una stagnazione secolare? Italia, Giappone, Stati Uniti, 1950-2015
[Towards a secular stagnation? Italy, Japan, United States, 1950-2015]

Author

Listed:
  • Daniele, Vittorio

Abstract

This paper discusses the hypothesis of secular stagnation. Firstly, the debate on stagnation, from Alvin Hansen (1938) to Marxists and more recent interpretations is illustrated. Then, the demographic and macroeconomic trends of Italy, Japan and the United States are examined in relationship with the secular stagnation hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele, Vittorio, 2015. "Una stagnazione secolare? Italia, Giappone, Stati Uniti, 1950-2015 [Towards a secular stagnation? Italy, Japan, United States, 1950-2015]," MPRA Paper 69997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:69997
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/69997/1/MPRA_paper_69997.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephanie Lo & Kenneth Rogoff, 2015. "Secular stagnation, debt overhang and other rationales for sluggish growth, six years on," BIS Working Papers 482, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 54-59, May.
    3. Thomas Piketty, 2013. "Le capital au XXIe siècle," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00979232, HAL.
    4. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    5. Mervyn King & David Low, 2014. "Measuring the ''World'' Real Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 19887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Laurence Ball, 2014. "Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 149-160, September.
    7. John Maynard Keynes, 2010. "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Essays in Persuasion, chapter 2, pages 321-332, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Mr. Derek Anderson & Mr. Dennis P Botman & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt, 2014. "Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary?," IMF Working Papers 2014/139, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 90(Q III), pages 5-32.
    11. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226081946 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Lawrence H. Summers, 2015. "Demand Side Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 60-65, May.
    14. Rafael Fernandez & Enrique Palazuelos, 2012. "European Union Economies Facing ‘Baumol's Disease’ within the Service Sector," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 231-249, March.
    15. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe [Le coût de la basse fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 141-158, May.
    16. Eckhard Hein, 2012. "The Macroeconomics of Finance-Dominated Capitalism – and its Crisis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14931.
    17. Era Dabla-Norris & Si Guo & Vikram Haksar & Minsuk Kim & Kalpana Kochhar & Kevin Wiseman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "The New Normal; A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/3, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Si Guo & Mr. V. Haksar & Minsuk Kim & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Kevin Wiseman & Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "The New Normal: A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/003, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: The Long View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 66-70, May.
    20. Dale W. Jorgenson & Marcel P. Timmer, 2011. "Structural Change in Advanced Nations: A New Set of Stylised Facts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(1), pages 1-29, March.
    21. Jochen Hartwig, 2011. "Testing The Baumol–Nordhaus Model With Eu Klems Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 57(3), pages 471-489, September.
    22. Patrizio Pagano & Massimo Sbracia, 2014. "The secular stagnation hypothesis: a review of the debate and some insights," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 231, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Charles Bean, 2010. "Joseph Schumpeter Lecture The Great Moderation, The Great Panic, and The Great Contraction," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 289-325, 04-05.
    24. Wolfgang Streeck, 2014. "The Politics of Public Debt: Neoliberalism, Capitalist Development and the Restructuring of the State," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 15(1), pages 143-165, February.
    25. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    27. Dale W. Jorgenson & Marcel P. Timmer, "undated". "Structural Change in Advanced Nations," Working Paper 13525, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2022. "Stagnation despite ongoing innovation: Is R&D expenditure composition a missing link? An empirical analysis for the US (1948-2019)," Department of Economics University of Siena 877, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    2. Andrea Borsato, 2021. "Does the Secular Stagnation hypothesis match with data? Evidence from USA," Working Papers of BETA 2021-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2020. "Discussing Secular Stagnation: A case for freeing good ideas from theoretical constraints?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 288-297.
    4. Peter Bauer & Igor Fedotenkov & Aurelien Genty & Issam Hallak & Peter Harasztosi & David Martinez Turegano & David Nguyen & Nadir Preziosi & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Miguel Sanchez Martinez, 2020. "Productivity in Europe: Trends and drivers in a service-based economy," JRC Research Reports JRC119785, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Peter Flaschel & Sigrid Luchtenberg & Hagen Kramer & Christian Proano & Mark Setterfield, 2021. "Contemporary Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Tragedy in Three Acts," Working Papers 2105, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    6. Dilian Vassilev, 2020. "Secular stagnation – the origin of the concept, a review of the scientific literature and the nature of the academic debate," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 137-158.
    7. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "Monetary Policy in the Grip of a Pincer Movement," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 10, pages 311-356, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Davide Gualerzi, 2020. "Secular Stagnation Revisited," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 55-79, June.
    9. Fritz, Marlon & Gries, Thomas & Feng, Yuanhua, 2019. "Secular stagnation? Is there statistical evidence of an unprecedented, systematic decline in growth?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 47-50.
    10. Neri, Stefano & Gerali, Andrea, 2019. "Natural rates across the Atlantic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat & Carole Ly-Marin, 2017. "Long-term growth and productivity projections in advanced countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 71-90.
    12. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    13. Guido Baldi & Patrick Harms, 2015. "Productivity Growth, Investment, and Secular Stagnation," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 83, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Francesco Furlanetto & Ørjan Robstad & Pål Ulvedal & Antoine Lepetit, 2020. "Estimating hysteresis effects," Working Paper 2020/13, Norges Bank.
    15. Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2021. "Identifying the sources of the slowdown in growth: Demand vs. supply," Working Paper 2021/9, Norges Bank.
    16. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2021. "Vermögenspreise, Zinseffekte und die Robustheit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland - eine Szenario-Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 36, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Grace Taylor & Rod Tyers, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 615-650, December.
    18. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    19. José Alves & Sandro Morgado, 2022. "Secular Stagnation: Is Immigration part of the solution?," Working Papers REM 2022/0212, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stagnazione secolare; disuguaglianze; crescita economica; Italia; invecchiamento popolazione;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B10 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - General
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B24 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Socialist; Marxist; Scraffian
    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:69997. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.