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Fertility and PAYG Pensions in an Overlapping Generations Model with Endogenous Retirement

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Hung-Ju

Abstract

This paper develops an overlapping generations model with endogenous retirement to examine the effect of fertility on long-run pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pensions. We find that pensions may not necessarily increase with the fertility rate. An increase in the fertility rate will raise pensions if the output elasticity of capital and the tax rate are sufficiently low, but such a change will reduce pensions if the fertility rate is sufficiently high. Our results also indicate that raising the fertility rate is more likely to reduce pensions in developing countries than in developed countries, while such a change tends to raise pensions for countries in which the costs of raising children are low.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Hung-Ju, 2015. "Fertility and PAYG Pensions in an Overlapping Generations Model with Endogenous Retirement," MPRA Paper 68020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:68020
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/68020/1/MPRA_paper_68020.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X, 1996. "A Positive Theory of Social Security," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 277-304, June.
    2. Miyazaki, Koichi, 2014. "Optimal pay-as-you-go social security when retirement is endogenous and labor productivity depreciates," MPRA Paper 61166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Fertility and PAYG pensions in the overlapping generations model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 955-961, July.
    4. Michele Boldrin & Larry E. Jones, 2002. "Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 775-814, October.
    5. van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
    6. Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 625-640.
    7. Chen, Hung-Ju, 2015. "Fertility, Official Pension Age, and PAYG Pensions," MPRA Paper 66429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Miyazaki, Koichi, 2014. "The effects of the raising-the-official-pension-age policy in an overlapping generations economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 329-332.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Retirement; OLG; PAYG pensions.;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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